inflation forecasts in the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we provide evidence that policy regimes without commitment … prevailed before 1980 and regimes with commitment prevailed afterward. With theory and quantification, we find that evolution of …

We define and study transparency, credibility, and reputation in a model where the central bank's characteristics are … unobservable to the private sector and are inferred from the policy outcome. A low-credibility bank optimally conducts a more … inflationary policy than a high-credibility bank, in the sense that it induces higher inflation, but a less expansionary policy in …

This paper examines the historical evolution of central bank credibility using both historical narrative and empirics … for a group of 16 countries, both advanced and emerging. It shows how the evolution of credibility has gone through a … pendulum where credibility was high under the classical gold standard before 1914 before being lost and not fully regained …

the ECB also hinges on trust in political institutions more generally and, to a lesser extent, on generalized trust (i …