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An Import(ant) Price of Brexit Uncertainty

Graziano, Alejandro G.; Handley, Kyle; Limão, Nuno - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

We estimate the impact of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on CES import price indices, focusing on the implications of Britain's exit from the European Union (Brexit). Our analysis reveals that an increase in the probability of Brexit increases U.K. import price indices by raising the prices of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014337833

Post-Neoliberal Globalization : International Trade Rules for Global Prosperity

Guzman, Martín; Stiglitz, Joseph E. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

This paper analyzes frameworks for the design of the rules for international trading, assuming that it is possible to have some rule of law. In the Arrow-Debreu benchmark, where there is no economic power and political power is seemingly irrelevant, there is no need for trade agreements - free...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014576561

Reciprocity and the China Shock

Bown, Chad P.; Caliendo, Lorenzo; Parro, Fernando; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

We formalize the GATT/WTO principle of reciprocity in workhorse quantitative trade models, characterizing reciprocal … sufficient statistic for the labor-market adjustments it can expect from tariff negotiations that satisfy reciprocity. Applying … our theoretical results to China's 2001 WTO accession, we find that China's tariff reductions exceeded reciprocity norms …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015056161

Trade and Industrial Policy in Supply Chains : Directed Technological Change in Rare Earths

Alfaro, Laura; Fadinger, Harald; Schymik, Jan S.; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2025

Trade and industrial policies, while primarily intended to support domestic industries, may unintentionally stimulate technological progress abroad. We document this mechanism in the case of rare earth elements (REEs) - critical inputs for manufacturing at the knowledge frontier, with low...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015409910

A Theory of Economic Coercion and Fragmentation

Clayton, Christopher; Maggiori, Matteo; Schreger, Jesse - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

Hegemonic powers, like the United States and China, exert influence on other countries by threatening the suspension or alteration of financial and trade relationships. Mechanisms that generate gains from integration, such as external economies of scale and specialization, also increase the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015171710

Putting Economics Back Into Geoeconomics

Clayton, Christopher; Maggiori, Matteo; Schreger, Jesse - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2025

Geoeconomics is the use of a country's economic strength to exert influence on foreign entities to achieve geopolitical or economic goals. We discuss how concepts of power in the political science and economics literature can be used to guide research on geoeconomics. Economic threats as a form...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015398133

Did Tariffs Make American Manufacturing Great? New Evidence from the Gilded Age

Klein, Alexander; Meissner, Christopher M. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

We study the relationship between tariffs and labor productivity in US manufacturing between 1870 and 1909. Using highly dis-aggregated tariff data, state-industry data for the manufacturing sector, and an instrumental variable strategy, results show that tariffs reduced labor productivity....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015145051

Lessons from U.S.-China Trade Relations

Caliendo, Lorenzo; Parro, Fernando - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

We review theoretical and empirical work on the economic effects of the United States and China trade relations during the last decades. We first discuss the origins of the China shock, its measurement, and present methods used to study its economic effects on different outcomes. We then focus...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013361989

Horses for Courses : Measuring Foreign Supply Chain Exposure

Baldwin, Richard E.; Freeman, Rebecca; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

Perceptions of global supply chains (GSCs) have shifted in recent years from a positive to a more cautious view. Standard GSC measures have mostly not adapted to this change as they focus on participation in, rather than exposure to, foreign supply chains. This paper presents the tools necessary...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013388881

Tariff Rate Uncertainty and the Structure of Supply Chains

Heise, Sebastian; Pierce, Justin R.; Schaur, Georg; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

We show that reducing the probability of a trade war promotes long-term importer-exporter relationships that ensure provision of high-quality inputs via incentive premia. Empirically, we introduce a method for distinguishing between these Japanese versus spot-market (i.e., American)...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014486230