Trust beliefs are heterogeneous across individuals and, at the same time, persistent across generations. We investigate one mechanism yielding these dual patterns: false consensus. In the context of a trust game experiment, we show that individuals extrapolate from their own type when forming...

We estimate the impact of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on CES import price indices, focusing on the implications of Britain's exit from the European Union (Brexit). Our analysis reveals that an increase in the probability of Brexit increases U.K. import price indices by raising the prices of...

We demonstrate that cognitive constraints produce injustice in its most paradigmatic form: incorrect verdicts in judicial trials. Responding to a request for help, we conducted a field study in Mexican labor courts in which time pressure on the judges leads to their making mistakes, many of...

We find that variation in expected U.S. productivity explains over half of U.S. dollar/G7 exchange rate fluctuations. Both correctly-anticipated changes in productivity and expectational noise, which influences the expectation of productivity but not its eventual realization, have large effects....

Using data on Software Development Kits (SDKs), we study SDKs in Android apps vis-à-vis the adoption of the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) by the European Union in May 2018. Relative to US-only apps, the number of non-Google SDKs used per app in 5 major European countries (EU5)...

Government subsidies are often used to stimulate environment-friendly investment. We find that Chinese firms reduce green investment as the uncertainty of subsidies rises. This effect is identified from weather-driven fluctuations in air pollution that lead to fluctuations in subsidy...

Existing research on selection in insurance markets focuses on how adverse selection distorts prices and misallocates products across people. This ignores the distributional consequences of who pays the higher prices. In this paper, we show that the distributional incidence depends on the...

Jobs increasingly require good decision-making. Workers are valued not only for how much they can do, but also for their ability to decide what to do. In this paper we develop a theory and measurement paradigm for assessing individual variation in the ability to make good decisions about...

Human decision-makers frequently override the recommendations generated by predictive algorithms, but it is unclear whether these discretionary overrides add valuable private information or reintroduce human biases and mistakes. We develop new quasi-experimental tools to measure the impact of...

Might firms' use of data create market power? To explore this hypothesis, we craft a model in which economies of scale in data induce a data-rich firm to invest in producing at a lower marginal cost and larger scale. However, the model uncovers much richer interactions between data, welfare and...