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We analyze the impact of fiscal and monetary stimulus in an economy with mortgage debt, where inflation redistributes … inflation, increasing consumption demand and house prices. The power of fiscal stimulus grows when borrowers are more indebted …. We then show quantitatively that transfers followed by easy monetary policy cause a surge in inflation which helps …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014576602
inflation expectations and permanently lowers the long-run inflation target in response to expansionary shocks, even when shocks … expected inflation. Such nominally sticky discount rates imply that increases in expected inflation directly lower firms' real … shocks and higher investment in response to government spending. Sticky discount rates imply that inflation has real effects …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014512092
We study the transmission of monetary policy through bank securities portfolios using granular supervisory data on U.S. bank securities, hedging positions, and corporate credit. Banks that experienced larger losses on their securities during the 2022-2023 monetary tightening cycle extended less...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544727
We propose a model where monetary policy is the key determinant of aggregate asset prices (financial conditions). Spending decisions are made by a group of agents ("households") that respond to aggregate asset prices, but with noise, delays, and inertia. Asset pricing is determined by a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334351
We introduce FDIF, a measure of Fed communication surprise based on the text of FOMC statements. FDIF measures the difference between text-implied and actual values of key market variables. Positive FDIF of countercyclical variables (e.g., credit spreads) is associated with negative...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334428
to stabilize inflation. Yet, market forces are likely to generate such inflows. Optimal capital flow management instead …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013462700
This article summarizes empirical research on the interaction between monetary policy and asset markets, and reviews our previous theoretical work that captures these interactions. We present a concise model in which monetary policy impacts the aggregate asset price, which in turn influences...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014468253
We develop a novel method for the identification of monetary policy shocks. By applying natural language processing techniques to documents that Federal Reserve staff prepare in advance of policy decisions, we capture the Fed's information set. Using machine learning techniques, we then predict...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544696
inflation, building on our earlier work for the United States. Globally, as in the United States, pandemic-era inflation was due … bank inflation targets. As the effects of supply shocks have subsided, tight labor markets, and the rises in nominal wages …, have become relatively more important sources of inflation in many countries. In several countries, including the United …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544809
We derive closed-form solutions and sufficient statistics for inflation and GDP dynamics in multi-sector New Keynesian … of inflation and GDP responses to monetary and sectoral shocks and (2) increase the pass-through of sectoral shocks to … aggregate inflation. Quantitatively, we confirm the significant role of production networks in shock propagation, emphasizing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014287319