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cuts in defence spending. These surpluses follow a period (the eighties) of rather exceptional budget deficits. This paper … investigates the origin, size, and expected future patterns of the U.S. budget balance. It discusses how different political forces …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471280
budget constraint is a constraint on the government's instruments that must be satisfied for all admissible values of the … predetermined variables in the government's budget constraint; and anomalous behaviour of the equilibrium' price sequences …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471482
If the U.S. is on a fiscally sustainable path, then higher U.S. government debt/output ratios should reliably predict higher future surpluses or lower real returns on Treasurys. In the post-war sample, we find no evidence for this. Neither future cash flows nor discount rates account for the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012660029
We use discounted cash flow analysis to measure a country's fiscal capacity. Crucially, the discount rate applied to projected cash flows includes a GDP risk premium. We apply our valuation method to the CBO's projections for the U.S. federal government's deficit between 2022 and 2051 and debt...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013190996
The analysis focuses on the government budget constraint and the resolution of inconsistent implications of different … reforms may cause jumps in inflation and the exchange rate through their impact on the government budget. In order to achieve …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012476939
This paper contains a descriptive analysis o+ real per capita annual revenues, expenditures, deficits, debt levels and capital expenditures for federal, state and local government finance in the United States for the rears 1952-83. It summarizes each time series as a deterministic trend and an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477006
governments, and attempts to model the impact on both the size of state budgets and on the sectors on which that budget is spent … 1966-1980.The analysis focuses on the two most visible sectors of state government expenditure, welfare and education …; without Federal matching rules and spending requirements states would choose to spend less on education and welfare services …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477523
While most Americans have long favored a balanced federal budget , not all do. This paper uses cross … want the budget balanced. Logit models are fit to data from two different public opinion polls : a Gallup poll and a CBS …/New York Times poll conducted , respectively, in March and April of 1980, a time when the proposed balanced budget amendment to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477863
The paper studies budgetary, financial and monetary policy evaluationand design using a comprehensive wealth or permanent income accounting framework. A set of stylized balance sheets and permanent income accountsis constructed for the public, private and overseas sectors.These are then...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478092
incomplete aspect of that investigation, however, was the failure to allow explicitly for the government budget constraint. This ….S. government securities market. The explicit imposition of the government budget constraint makes a major difference for the … basis of familiar economic theory, the effect of imposing the government budget constraint is to make the real …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478225