We revisit a central question for international macroeconomics: the response of export prices and quantities to movements in the exchange rate (ER). We use granular export data for Chile and study how the effects of ER movements vary over time with the currency of invoicing and the destination...

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the forecastability of the real price of natural gas in the United States at the monthly frequency considering a universe of models that differ in their complexity and economic content. Our key finding is that considerable reductions in...

We develop a method to identify the individual latent propensity to select into treatment and marginal treatment effects. Identification is achieved with survey data on individuals' subjective expectations of their treatment propensity and of their treatment-contingent outcomes. We use the...

In this paper we use the functional vector autoregression (VAR) framework of Chang, Chen, and Schorfheide (2024) to study the effects of monetary policy shocks (conventional and informational) on the cross-sectional distribution of U.S. earnings (from the Current Population Survey), consumption,...

VARs are often estimated with Bayesian techniques to cope with model dimensionality. The posterior means define a class of shrinkage estimators, indexed by hyperparameters that determine the relative weight on maximum likelihood estimates and prior means. In a Bayesian setting, it is natural to...

This paper investigates the impact of market structure on the joint determination of exchange rate pass- through and currency of invoicing in international trade. A novel feature of the study is the focus on market share of firms on both sides of the market--that is, exporting firms and...

We document basic facts about prices in online markets in the U.S. and Canada, a rapidly growing segment of the retail sector. Relative to prices in regular stores, prices in online markets are more flexible as well as exhibit stronger pass-through (60-75 percent) and faster convergence...

In this paper we examine how monetary policy should respond to nominal exchange rates in a New Keynesian open economy model that allows for a non-trivial role for sterilised intervention. The paper develops the argument against the backdrop of the evolving policy-making environment of Asian...

What drives countercyclical volatility? A large literature has documented that many economic variables are more disperse in recessions, but this could either occur because shocks get bigger or because firms respond more to shocks which are the same size. Existing evidence that the dispersion of...

We develop a theoretical model of international trade pricing in which individual exporters and importers bargain over the transaction price and exposure to exchange rate fluctuations. We find that the choice of price and invoicing currency reflects the full market structure, including the...