Showing 71 - 80 of 117
When expected returns are linear in asset characteristics, the stochastic discount factor (SDF) that prices individual stocks can be represented as a factor model with GLS cross-sectional regression slope factors. Factors constructed heuristically by aggregating individual stocks into...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014287376
, we ask what is, empirically, the best discounting method. To do this, we study listed firms, whose actual prices and … expected cash flows can be observed. We compare different discounting approaches on their ability to predict actual market … prices. We find that discounting based on expected returns (such as variants on the CAPM or multi-factor model), performs …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013537790
This paper studies the transmission of monetary policy to the stock market through investors' discount factors. To isolate this channel, we investigate the effect of US monetary policy surprises on the ratio of prices of the same stock listed simultaneously in Hong Kong and Mainland China, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544777
Building on theories of international relations, we analyze how mistrust (uncertainty about an adversary's preferences or capabilities), misperception (imperfect observation of an adversary's actions), and misunderstanding (non-degenerate higher-order beliefs) can lead to conflict and drive its...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014372438
We analyze a coordination game with information-constrained players. The players' actions are based on a noisy compressed representation of the game's payoffs in a particular case, where the compressed representation is a latent state learned by a variational autoencoder (VAE). Our generalized...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014486205
Many, if not most, personalistic dictatorships end up with a disastrous decision such as Hitler's attack on the Soviet Union, Hirohito's government launching a war against the United States, or Putin's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Even if the decision is not ultimately fatal for the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014250204
We propose a political economy mechanism that explains the presence of fiscal regimes punctuated by crisis periods. Our model focuses on the interaction between successive deficit-biased governments subject to i.i.d. fiscal shocks. We show that the economy transitions between a fiscally...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013435163
experimentally the effects of discounting differentials in infinitely repeated coordination games. In our data, differential discount …. Introducing even small discounting differentials reduces coordination failures significantly. Second, with pronounced discounting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014287389
We examine innovative contexts like scientific research or technical R&D where agents must search across many potential projects of varying and uncertain returns. Is it better to possess incomplete but accurate data on the value of some projects, or might there be cases where it is better to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544680
Starting from Robbins (1952), the literature on experimentation via multi-armed bandits has wed exploration and exploitation. Nonetheless, in many applications, agents' exploration and exploitation need not be intertwined: a policymaker may assess new policies different than the status quo; an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544703