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The Comovement of Voter Preferences : Insights from U.S. Presidential Election Prediction Markets Beyond Polls

Chernov, Mikhail; Elenev, Vadim; Song, Dongho - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2025

We propose a novel time-series econometric framework to forecast U.S. Presidential election outcomes in real time by combining polling data, economic fundamentals, and political prediction market prices. Our model estimates the joint dynamics of voter preferences across states. Applying our...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015194984

Prediction with Differential Covariate Classification : Illustrated by Racial/Ethnic Classification in Medical Risk Assessment

Manski, Charles F.; Mullahy, John; Venkataramani, … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2025

A common practice in evidence-based decision-making uses estimates of conditional probabilities P(y|x) obtained from research studies to predict outcomes y on the basis of observed covariates x. Given this information, decisions are then based on the predicted outcomes. Researchers commonly...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015194995

The Dynamics of Criminal Behavior : Evidence from Weather Shocks

Jacob, Brian - 2004

The persistence of criminal activity is well documented. While such serial correlation may be evidence of social … between crime rates in a particular area due to displacement. In this paper, we exploit the correlation between weather and … lagged crime rates due to unexpected weather shocks, we find that the strong positive serial correlation documented in OLS is …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467951

A No-Arbitrage Approach to Range-Based Estimation of Return Covariances and Correlations

Brandt, Michael W. - 2003

We extend range-based volatility estimation to the multivariate case. In particular, we propose a range-based covariance estimator motivated by a key financial economic consideration, the absence of arbitrage, in addition to statistical considerations. We show that this estimator is highly...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469034

Stock-bond Return Correlation, Bond Risk Premium Fundamental, and Fiscal-monetary Policy Regime

Li, Erica X.N. - 2020

stylized facts: (1) the positive stock-bond return correlation from 1971 to 2000 and the negative one after 2000, (2) the … negative correlation between consumption and inflation from 1971 to 2000 and the positive one after 2000, and (3) the … coexistence of positive bond risk premiums and the negative stock-bond return correlation. We show that two distinctive shocks …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481165

Newer Need Not be Better : Evaluating the Penn World Tables and the World Development Indicators Using Nighttime Lights

Pinkovskiy, Maxim - 2016

Nighttime lights data are a measure of economic activity whose error is plausibly independent of the measurement errors of most conventional indicators. Therefore, we can use nighttime lights as an independent benchmark to assess existing measures of economic activity (Pinkovskiy and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456459

Money and Output : Friedman and Schwartz Revisited

Belongia, Michael T. - 2015

More than fifty years ago, Friedman and Schwartz examined historical data for the United States and found evidence of pro-cyclical movements in the money stock, which led corresponding movements in output. We find similar correlations in more recent data; these appear most clearly when Divisia...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456875

Principal Component Analysis of High Frequency Data

Aït-Sahalia, Yacine - 2015

We develop the necessary methodology to conduct principal component analysis at high frequency. We construct estimators …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457085

David, Joel M. - 2015

information-based model demonstrates that the correlation of beliefs implied by analyst forecasts leads to return correlations … broadly in line with the data, both in levels and across countries - the correlation between predicted and actual is 0.63. Our …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457188

Facts and Fantasies about Commodity Futures Ten Years Later

Bhardwaj, Geetesh - 2015

Gorton and Rouwenhorst (2006) examined commodity futures returns over the period July 1959 to December 2004 based on an equally-weighted index. They found that fully collateralized commodity futures had historically offered the same return and Sharpe ratio as U.S. equities, but were negatively...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457424