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Scenarios for the Transition to AGI
Korinek, Anton; Suh, Donghyun - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
We analyze how output and wages behave under different scenarios for technological progress that may culminate in Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), defined as the ability of AI systems to perform all tasks that humans can perform. We assume that human work can be decomposed into atomistic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014512109
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The Simple Macroeconomics of AI
Acemoglu, Daron - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
This paper evaluates claims about large macroeconomic implications of new advances in AI. It starts from a task-based model of AI's effects, working through automation and task complementarities. So long as AI's microeconomic effects are driven by cost savings/productivity improvements at the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544765
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Robots and Workers : Evidence from the Netherlands
Acemoglu, Daron; Koster, Hans; Ozgen, Ceren - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
We estimate the effects of robot adoption on firm-level and worker-level outcomes in the Netherlands using a large employer-employee panel dataset spanning 2009-2020. Our firm-level results confirm previous findings, with positive effects on value added and hours worked for robot-adopting firms...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014247929
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New Technologies and Jobs in Europe
Albanesi, Stefania; Silva, António Dias da; Jimeno, Juan F. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
We examine the link between labour market developments and new technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) and software in 16 European countries over the period 2011- 2019. Using data for occupations at the 3-digit level in Europe, we find that on average employment shares have increased...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322745
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Unemployment, Market Work and Household Production
Burda, Michael - 2009
additional leisure and personal maintenance, not in increased household production. There is no relation between unemployment … duration and the split of time between household production and leisure. U.S. data for 2003-2006 show that almost none of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463971
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Families, Labor Markets, and Policy
Albanesi, Stefania; Olivetti, Claudia; Petrongolo, Barbara - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
Using comparable data for 24 countries since the 1970s, we document gender convergence in schooling, employment and earnings, marriage delay and the accompanying decline in fertility, and the large remaining gaps in labor market outcomes, especially among parents. A model of time allocation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013462733
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Time Use and Macroeconomic Uncertainty
Cacciatore, Matteo; Hauser, Daniela; Gnocchi, Stefano - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
Time Use Survey and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, we document that heightened uncertainty increases housework and reduces … market work hours, mildly impacting leisure. We then propose a model that quantitatively accounts for these estimates. We … show that substitution between market and housework provides self-insurance to households, weakening precautionary savings …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014447275
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Aggregate and Distributional Effects of ‘Free' Secondary Schooling in the Developing World
Fujimoto, Junichi; Lagakos, David; VanVuren, Mitchell - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
This paper analyzes the aggregate and distributional effects of publicly funded merit-based ('free') secondary schooling in the developing world. Our analysis is based on an overlapping-generations model of human capital accumulation in which households face borrowing constraints that can lead...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014247950
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Meritocracy across Countries
Bandiera, Oriana; Kotia, Ananya; Lindenlaub, Ilse; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
Are labor markets in higher-income countries more meritocratic, in the sense that worker-job matching is based on skills rather than idiosyncratic attributes unrelated to productivity? If so, why? And what are the aggregate consequences? Using internationally comparable data on worker skills and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014528414
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Appropriate Entrepreneurship? The Rise of China and the Developing World
Lerner, Joshua; Liu, Junxi; Moscona, Jacob; Yang, David Y. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
Global innovation and entrepreneurship has traditionally been dominated by a handful of high-income countries, especially the US. This paper investigates the international consequences of the rise of a new hub for innovation, focusing on the dramatic growth of high-potential entrepreneurship and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014512047