Economic theory suggests that monopoly prices hurt consumers but benefit shareholders. But in a world where individuals or households can be both consumers and shareholders, the impact of market power on inequality depends in part on the relative distribution of consumption and corporate equity...

We review the efficacy of three approaches to forecasting elections: econometric models that project outcomes on the basis of the state of the economy; public opinion polls; and election betting (prediction markets). We assess the efficacy of each in light of the 2004 Australian election. This...

In "Happiness and the Human Development Index: The Paradox of Australia," Blanchflower and Oswald (2005) observe an apparent puzzle: they claim that Australia ranks highly in the Human Development Index (HDI), but relatively poorly in happiness. However, when we compare their happiness data with...

We analyze financial market data in order to produce an ex-ante assessment of the economic consequences of war with Iraq. The novel feature of our analysis derives from the existence of a market for Saddam Securities,' a new future traded on an online betting exchange that pays only if Saddam...

We examine how the net worth of billionaires relates to their looks, as rated by 16 people of different gender and ethnicity. Surprisingly, their financial assets are unrelated to their beauty; nor are they related to their educational attainment. As a group, however, billionaires are both more...

This paper examines how the introduction of artificial intelligence (AI), particularly generative and large language models capable of interpolating precisely between known data points, reshapes scientists' incentives for pursuing novel versus incremental research. Extending the theoretical...

This paper analyzes the design of tests to distinguish human from artificial intelligence through the lens of information design. We identify a fundamental asymmetry: while AI systems can strategically underperform to mimic human limitations, they cannot overperform beyond their capabilities....

Building on recent advances in the literature on knowledge creation and innovation (notably Carnehl and Schneider (2025), we propose a novel general equilibrium model that explicitly incorporates artificial intelligence (AI) as a decision-enhancing technology capable of interpolating between...

We develop a model of strategic information provision where politicians choose how to allocate limited disclosure across multiple policy dimensions. Citizens are heterogeneous statistical learners who interpret data differently, following Liang (2021). Our key insight: spreading information...

Steve Jobs described computers as "bicycles for the mind," a tool that allowed people to dramatically leverage their capabilities. This paper presents a formal model of cognitive tools and technologies that enhance mental capabilities. We consider agents engaged in iterative task improvement,...