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We examine the transmission of monetary policy shocks to the long-duration liabilities of households and firms using high-frequency variation in 10-year swap rates around FOMC announcements. We find that four weeks after the announcement mortgage rates move one-for-one with 10-year swap rates,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014486229
Two extraordinary U.S. labor market developments facilitated the sharp disinflation in 2022-23 without raising the unemployment rate. First, pandemic-driven infection worries and social distancing intentions caused a sizable drag on labor force participation that began to reverse in the first...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014576613
We develop a framework to measure the welfare impact of inflationary shocks throughout the distribution. The first-order impact of a shock is summarized by the induced movements in agents' feasible sets: their budget constraint and borrowing constraints. To measure this impact, we combine...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014250142
inflation in the 2020s. Economic slack is measured as firms' job vacancies over the number of unemployed workers. After showing …. Policy implications include the thesis that appropriate monetary policy can bring inflation down without a significant …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014250214
This paper provides new evidence on a long-standing question asked by Shiller (1997): Why do we dislike inflation? I … inflation and their reactions to it. The predominant reason for people's aversion to inflation is the widespread belief that it …-income groups. Inflation also provokes stress, emotional responses, and a sense of inequity, as the wages of high-income individuals …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014528340
variables influence cross-country resilience regarding exchange rates, interest rates, stock prices, inflation, and growth …-2023. Cross-sectional regressions reveal that limiting inflation, active management of precautionary buffers of international … variables for financial development, central bank independence, and the inflation rate preceding the cycles. These findings may …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015072898
Our current inflation stemmed from a fiscal shock. The Fed is slow to react. Why? Will the Fed's slow reaction spur … more inflation? I write a simple model that encompasses the Fed's mild projections and its slow reaction, and traditional … views that inflation will surge without swift rate rises. The key question is whether expectations are forward looking or …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210124
We develop a novel method for the identification of monetary policy shocks. By applying natural language processing techniques to documents that Federal Reserve staff prepare in advance of policy decisions, we capture the Fed's information set. Using machine learning techniques, we then predict...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544696
This paper studies people's understanding of inflation--their perceived causes, consequences, trade-offs--and the … views align with established economic theories. Our key findings show that the major perceived causes of inflation include … negative consequences of inflation but the most noted one is the increased complexity and difficulty in household decision …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544775
inflation. We construct daily revisions to expectations of future nominal interest rates and inflation that are priced into … nominal and inflation-protected bonds, and find that the relation between these two variables-positive and stable for over … considered in the literature, these results are indicative of a monetary authority that places less weight on inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014576649