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inflation to volatility, because a larger fraction of sellers are pushed out of their regions of inaction when volatility is …The US and other advanced countries suffered bursts of severe inflation in 2021 and the first half of 2022, followed by … declines of inflation later in 2022, in some countries. In times of high volatility of price determinants--cost and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014247946
We show that, in a broad class of menu cost models, the dynamics of aggregate inflation in response to arbitrary shocks …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334481
difference by showing that, although the pass-through of marginal cost into inflation is substantial, the elasticity of marginal … inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322770
explaining bouts of inflation. We begin by showing that a quasi-flat Phillips curve, which was popular prior to the pandemic …, still fits the post-2020 US data well and that changes in short term inflation expectations induced by supply shocks likely … played a major role in the recent inflation episode. We then document features of the joint dynamics of inflation and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014528362
. The model delivers a static wage Phillips curve linking current wage inflation to current unemployment. For standard … stickiness, which features a forward-looking wage Phillips curve, linking current wage inflation to future expected wage … inflation and current unemployment. This result puts in perspective the role played by the forward-looking component of the new …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013477266
We develop a novel method for the identification of monetary policy shocks. By applying natural language processing techniques to documents that Federal Reserve staff prepare in advance of policy decisions, we capture the Fed's information set. Using machine learning techniques, we then predict...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544696
inflation, building on our earlier work for the United States. Globally, as in the United States, pandemic-era inflation was due … bank inflation targets. As the effects of supply shocks have subsided, tight labor markets, and the rises in nominal wages …, have become relatively more important sources of inflation in many countries. In several countries, including the United …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544809
We study the relation between inflation and real activity over the business cycle. We employ a Trend-Cycle VAR model to … control for low-frequency movements in inflation, unemployment, and growth that are pervasive in the post-WWII period. We show … that cyclical fluctuations of inflation are related to cyclical movements in real activity and unemployment, in line with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014247995
Post-covid inflation was predominantly driven by unexpectedly strong demand forces, not only in the United States, but … inflation near its 2-percent target---would have severely hampered an already anaemic recovery …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015056186
inflation behaves as if prices are nearly fully sticky (flexible). Using (conventional) measures of inflation that understate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544805