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inflation, building on our earlier work for the United States. Globally, as in the United States, pandemic-era inflation was due … bank inflation targets. As the effects of supply shocks have subsided, tight labor markets, and the rises in nominal wages …, have become relatively more important sources of inflation in many countries. In several countries, including the United …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544809
We develop a novel method for the identification of monetary policy shocks. By applying natural language processing techniques to documents that Federal Reserve staff prepare in advance of policy decisions, we capture the Fed's information set. Using machine learning techniques, we then predict...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544696
accurate decisions. Through their pricing behavior, monopolistic producers can influence whether households deploy Systems 1 or …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014512068
expected inflation. Such nominally sticky discount rates imply that increases in expected inflation directly lower firms' real … shocks and higher investment in response to government spending. Sticky discount rates imply that inflation has real effects … inflation expectations and permanently lowers the long-run inflation target in response to expansionary shocks, even when shocks …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014512092
We study the relation between inflation and real activity over the business cycle. We employ a Trend-Cycle VAR model to … control for low-frequency movements in inflation, unemployment, and growth that are pervasive in the post-WWII period. We show … that cyclical fluctuations of inflation are related to cyclical movements in real activity and unemployment, in line with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014247995
We show that if the central bank operates without commitment and faces constraints on its balance sheet, helicopter drops can be a useful stabilization tool during a liquidity trap. With commitment, even with balance sheet constraints, helicopter drops are irrelevant
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014247967
explosion of inflation during his administration (above 1,500% on a six-month annualized measure) was predictable, and that the … that the combination of runaway inflation, shortages, and black markets generated major disaffection among the middle class …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014437020
We study the redistributive effects of inflation combining administrative bank data with an information provision … experiment during an episode of historic inflation. On average, households are well-informed about prevailing inflation and are … concerned about its impact on their wealth; yet, while many households know about inflation eroding nominal assets, most are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014372429
Unemployment is low and inflation is falling, but consumer sentiment remains depressed. This has confounded economists … official inflation are strongly correlated with borrowing costs and consumer credit supply. Concerns over borrowing costs … alternative measures of inflation that include borrowing costs and can account for almost three quarters of the gap in US consumer …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014486254
The standard measure of core or underlying inflation is the inflation rate excluding food and energy prices. This paper … constructs an alternative measure, the weighted median inflation rate, for 38 advanced and emerging economies using subclass …, and more closely related to headline inflation over the next year. The weighted median also has a drawback: in most …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014247953