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Cross-sectional forecasts of conservative and optimistic biases in analyst earnings estimates predict a stock's future returns, especially for firms that are hard to value. Trading strategies--whether based on the component of analyst bias that is correlated with major return anomalies or the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014248012
We use a large cross-section of equity returns to estimate a rich affine model of equity prices, dividends, returns and their dynamics. Using the model, we price dividend strips of the aggregate market index, as well as any other well-diversified equity portfolio. We do not use any dividend...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014250137
We use arbitrage activity in equity, fixed income, and foreign exchange markets to characterize the frictions and constraints facing intermediaries. The average pairwise correlation between the 29 arbitrage spreads that we study is 21%. These low correlations are inconsistent with canonical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013435123
model is also able to capture key patterns of CME Comex gold futures prices from about 1990 onwards. The model implies that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322774
risk of hedging options exposures have declined, consistent with a model in which intermediaries drive option prices …The historical returns on equity index options are well known to be strikingly negative. That is typically explained … demanding a premium for hedging risk. This paper examines the consistency of those explanations with returns on dynamically …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014436964
: implied volatility from one-day options on grains for the period 1906-1936, and on cliquet options, which provide insurance …-dated options. Finally, we discuss new avenues for future research …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014437009
We measure investors' short- and long-term stock-return expectations using both options and survey data. These …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014372444
This paper uses high frequency data to detect shifts in financial markets' perception of the Federal Reserve stance on inflation. We construct daily revisions to expectations of future nominal interest rates and inflation that are priced into nominal and inflation-protected bonds, and find that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014576649
Perpetual futures are contracts without expiration date in which the anchoring of the futures price to the spot price … various perpetual contracts, including linear, inverse, and quantos futures in both discrete and continuous-time. In … particular, we show that the futures price is given by the risk-neutral expectation of the spot sampled at a random time that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015072878
-war announcements, we find that an increased outflow risk faced by funds leads to more aggressive flow-hedging portfolio tilts …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334451