Showing 1 - 10 of 114
We investigate whether a model with a time-varying probability of economic disaster can explain the pricing of collateralized debt obligations, both prior to and during the 2008-2009 financial crisis. Namely, we examine the pricing of tranches on the CDX, an index of credit default swaps on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455957
We view sustainability as a requirement that welfare should not be expected to decline over time. We impose this requirement as a prior constraint on the consumption-savings-investment problem, and study its implications for saving, risky investment, and the social discount rate. The constraint...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012585383
We study the propagation of nominal shocks in a dispersed information economy where firms learn from and respond to information generated by their activities in product and factor markets. We prove the existence of a "Hayekian benchmark", defined by conditions under which imperfect information...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015145165
This paper investigates the role that imperfect knowledge about the structure of the economy plays in the formation of expectations, macroeconomic dynamics, and the efficient formulation of monetary policy. Economic agents rely on an adaptive learning technology to form expectations and to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468813
This paper proves a certainty equivalence result for optimal policy under commitment with symmetric partial information about the state of the economy in a model with forward-looking variables. This result is used in our previous paper, Indicator Variables for Optimal Policy,' which synthesizes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469273
We investigate the role of information frictions in the US labor market using a new nationally representative panel dataset on individuals' labor market expectations and realizations. We find that expectations about future job offers are, on average, highly predictive of actual outcomes. Despite...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480641
Jurisdictions across the United States have adopted "ban the box" (BTB) policies preventing employers from conducting criminal background checks until late in the job application process. Their goal is to improve employment outcomes for those with criminal records, with a secondary goal of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456208
This chapter studies how incomplete information helps accommodate frictions in coordination, leading to novel insights on the joint determination of expectations and macroeconomic outcomes. We review and synthesize recent work on global games, beauty contests, and their applications. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456378
This paper proposes a structural approach to measuring the effects of electoral accountability. We estimate a political agency model with imperfect information in order to identify and quantify discipline and selection effects, using data on U.S. governors for 1982-2012. We find that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457515
We propose a theory linking imperfect information to resource misallocation and hence to aggregate productivity and output. In our setup, firms look to a variety of noisy information sources when making input decisions. We devise a novel empirical strategy that uses a combination of firm-level...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458327