Interest in market power has recently surged among economists in many fields, well beyond its traditional home in industrial organization. This has focused empirical attention on markups, the ratios of price to marginal cost in product markets, and markdowns, the ratios of inputs' marginal...

The substantial fluctuations in oil prices in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine have highlighted the importance of tail events in the global market for crude oil which call for careful risk assessment. In this paper we focus on forecasting tail risks in the...

We must infer what the future situation would be without our interference, and what changes will be wrought by our actions. Fortunately, or unfortunately, none of these processes is infallible, or indeed ever accurate and complete. Knight (1921)

Dealing with endogenous regressors is a central challenge of applied research. The standard solution is to use instrumental variables that are assumed to be uncorrelated with unobservables. We instead assume (i) the correlation between the instrument and the error term has the same sign as the...

We develop a perturbational technique to approximate equilibria of a wide class of discrete-time dynamic stochastic general equilibrium heterogeneous-agent models with complex state spaces, including multi-dimensional distributions of endogenous variables. We show that approximating policy...

In HANK models, fiscal deficits drive aggregate demand and thus inflation because households are non-Ricardian; in the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (FTPL), they instead do so via equilibrium selection. Because of this difference, the mapping from deficits to inflation in HANK is robust to...

The neo-Fisher effect and the central bank information (CBI) effect produce similar outcomes: under both, a monetary tightening triggers an increase in inflation and an expansion in real activity. Separate estimates of these effects run the risk of confounding one with the other. To disentangle...