Forecasts of the rate of price inflation play a central role in the formulation of monetary policy, and forecasting … inflation is a key job for economists at the Federal Reserve Board. This paper examines whether this job has become harder and …, to the extent that it has, what changes in the inflation process have made it so. The main finding is that the univariate …

We use data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters to compare point forecasts of GDP growth and inflation with the …

inflation. This paper fills this research gap by providing a replicable forecasting model that beats a host of other competing … models when measured by root mean square errors, especially over long-run forecast horizons. The model is shown to be capable …

This paper surveys the literature since 1993 on pseudo out-of-sample evaluation of inflation forecasts in the United …

This paper examines old and new evidence on the predictive performance of asset prices for inflation and real output … prices predict either inflation or output growth in some countries in some periods. Which series predicts what, when and …

This paper investigates forecasts of U.S. inflation at the 12-month horizon. The starting point is the conventional … unemployment rate Phillips curve, which is examined in a simulated out of sample forecasting framework. Inflation forecasts …

approximating strict inflation-forecast targeting are likely to have undesirable properties. We also show that economies with more …Proposals for 'inflation targeting' as a strategy for monetary policy leave open the important operational question of … how to determine whether current policies are consistent with the long-run inflation target. An interesting possibility is …

expected inflation. To test this question two sets of inflation forecasts for the U.S. and five European countries were … generated: 1) from time series of past inflation rates;2) by forecasting real rates from time series of past real rates and … subtracting these forecasts from nominal rates. The accuracy of the two sets of inflation forecasts was compared. The results …

. In the model, overconfident individuals overreact to their information about future inflation, which causes greater … overshooting in the forward rate than in the spot rate. Thus, when agents observe a signal of higher future inflation, the …