This paper investigates forecasts of U.S. inflation at the 12-month horizon. The starting point is the conventional … unemployment rate Phillips curve, which is examined in a simulated out of sample forecasting framework. Inflation forecasts …

regularization penalties, and we use them in a substantive exploration of Eurozone inflation and real interest rate density forecasts …. All individual inflation forecasters (even the ex post best forecaster) are outperformed by our regularized mixtures. From …

inflation rate is -.17. The corresponding correlation for the period 1950 to 1979 is .71. Inflation evolved from essentially a … stochastic process of inflation, rather than a change in any structural relationship between nominal rates and expectedi nflation …. I find little evidence of inflation non-neutrality in data from the gold standard period.This contradicts the conclusion …

expected inflation. To test this question two sets of inflation forecasts for the U.S. and five European countries were … generated: 1) from time series of past inflation rates;2) by forecasting real rates from time series of past real rates and … subtracting these forecasts from nominal rates. The accuracy of the two sets of inflation forecasts was compared. The results …

Forecasts of the rate of price inflation play a central role in the formulation of monetary policy, and forecasting … inflation is a key job for economists at the Federal Reserve Board. This paper examines whether this job has become harder and …, to the extent that it has, what changes in the inflation process have made it so. The main finding is that the univariate …

Surveys do! We examine the forecasting power of four alternative methods of forecasting U.S. inflation out …

This paper examines old and new evidence on the predictive performance of asset prices for inflation and real output … prices predict either inflation or output growth in some countries in some periods. Which series predicts what, when and …

distribution of expected future inflation. We evaluate the adequacy of" those density forecasts using the framework of Diebold … inflation including several deficiencies of the forecasts. The probability of a large negative inflation" shock is generally … overestimated, and in more recent years the probability of a large shock of" either sign is overestimated. Inflation surprises are …

This paper investigates the use of trimmed means as high-frequency estimators of" inflation. The known characteristics … that simple averages of price data are" unlikely to produce efficient estimates of inflation. Trimmed means produce … superior estimates" of core inflation,' which we define as a long-run centered moving average of CPI and PPI" inflation. We …

Proposals for 'inflation targeting' as a strategy for monetary policy leave open the important operational question of … how to determine whether current policies are consistent with the long-run inflation target. An interesting possibility is … that the central bank might target current private-sector forecasts of inflation, either those made explicitly by …