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Determinants of Long-Term Growth : A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach

Doppelhofer, Gernot - 2000

This paper examines the robustness of explanatory variables in cross-country economic growth regressions. It employs a novel approach, Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE), which constructs estimates as a weighted average of OLS estimates for every possible combination of included...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471000

Estimation and Evaluation of DSGE Models : Progress and Challenges

Schorfheide, Frank - 2011

Estimated dynamic stochastic equilibrium (DSGE) models are now widely used for empirical research in macroeconomics as well as for quantitative policy analysis and forecasting at central banks around the world. This paper reviews recent advances in the estimation and evaluation of DSGE models,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461876

Sign Restrictions, Structural Vector Autoregressions, and Useful Prior Information

Baumeister, Christiane - 2014

This paper makes the following original contributions to the literature. (1) We develop a simpler analytical characterization and numerical algorithm for Bayesian inference in structural vector autoregressions that can be used for models that are overidentified, just-identified, or...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457925

Sparse Modeling Under Grouped Heterogeneity with an Application to Asset Pricing

Cong, Lin William; Feng, Guanhao; He, Jingyu; Li, Junye - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

Sparse models, though long preferred and pursued by social scientists, can be ineffective or unstable relative to large models, for example, in economic predictions (Giannone et al., 2021). To achieve sparsity for economic interpretation while exploiting big data for superior empirical...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322811

Quantile Regression under Misspecification, with an Application to the U.S. Wage Structure

Angrist, Joshua - 2004

Quantile regression(QR) fits a linear model for conditional quantiles, just as ordinary least squares (OLS) fits a linear model for conditional means. An attractive feature of OLS is that it gives the minimum mean square error linear approximation to the conditional expectation function even...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468265

Extremal Quantile Regressions for Selection Models and the Black-White Wage Gap

D'Haultfoeuille, Xavier - 2014

We consider the estimation of a semiparametric location-scale model subject to endogenous selection, in the absence of an instrument or a large support regressor. Identification relies on the independence between the covariates and selection, for arbitrarily large values of the outcome. In this...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458409

Semiparametric Estimates of Monetary Policy Effects : String Theory Revisited

Angrist, Joshua D. - 2013

We develop a flexible semiparametric time series estimator that is then used to assess the causal effect of monetary policy interventions on macroeconomic aggregates. Our estimator captures the average causal response to discrete policy interventions in a macro-dynamic setting, without the need...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459297

Bayesian Variable Selection for Nowcasting Economic Time Series

Scott, Steven L. - 2013

We consider the problem of short-term time series forecasting (nowcasting) when there are more possible predictors than observations. Our approach combines three Bayesian techniques: Kalman filtering, spike-and-slab regression, and model averaging. We illustrate this approach using search engine...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459094

Growth Economics and Reality

Brock, William A. - 2000

the perspective of economic theory as well as from the perspective of the historical experiences of the countries under … model specification. Model uncertainty consists of two types: theory uncertainty, which relates to which growth determinants … draws from the same statistical model. We propose ways to account for both theory and heterogeneity uncertainty. Finally …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470690

Common Sense and Simplicity in Empirical Industrial Organization

Pakes, Ariel - 2003

This paper is a revised version of a keynote address delivered at the inaugural International Industrial Organization Conference in Boston, April 2003. I argue that new econometric tools have facilitated the estimation of models with realistic theoretical underpinnings, and because of this, have...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468540

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