: excessive arming and possibly the destruction associated with open conflict. Standard arguments in game theory suggest that more …, shows cycles of peace, arms races, and serious instances of open conflict. Long-lasting disarmed peace is rarely observed …. The paper develops a unified model of conflict that reveals possible theoretical mechanisms to produce such historical …

beginning of the war. Hence, reconstruction efforts that focus on supporting scientists to continue in the research sector, and …We discuss the impacts of the Russian invasion on Ukrainian science. Using newly collected data, we show that the war … return to Ukraine after the war has ended, are likely to have the greatest impact on long-run scientific productivity in …

extreme climate is associated with elevated risk of inter-group conflict, intra-personal violence, and self-harm. The …We survey the quantitative research literature linking climate and conflict, a body of research that spans multiple …

the globe--to evaluate India's varied road construction projects in the early 2000s. Estimating the model requires only … through public sources. We find that India's road investments from this period improved aggregate welfare, particularly for …

-participation (FLFNP) that often accompanies economic development. This explanation is based on the idea that households or ethnic groups … economic development, then this would explain the persistent increase in FLFNP. To provide empirical support for this argument … status. The steep increase in female education in recent decades could paradoxically have increased FLFNP in India even …

increase in many fragile and conflict-affected areas where half of the extreme poor are expected to reside by 2030. These areas … Poor program can lift households out of poverty in a fragile context: Afghanistan. In 80 villages in Balkh province, 1 …-push" interventions can dramatically reduce poverty in fragile and conflict-affected regions …

As of this writing, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are in their eighth and tenth years, having accrued nearly a … the implications of the war costs themselves. Besides the unanticipated length and breadth of the military conflicts … motivations associated with war cost forecasts by comparing them with other types of aggregate forecasts, which are prone to …

Policymakers can take actions to prevent local conflict before it begins, if such violence can be accurately predicted … decades of fine-grained violence data by type, alongside hundreds of annual risk factors. We predict violence one year ahead … with a range of machine learning techniques. Models reliably identify persistent, high-violence hot spots. Violence is not …

-based predictions with data on secessionist movements, state fragility, regional autonomy, and conflict, as well as with an application …