climate risk beliefs. We exploit two types of idiosyncratic belief shocks: (i) instances when fund advisers experience local … hedge portfolios for aggregate unemployment and house price risk …

We measure investors' short- and long-term stock-return expectations using both options and survey data. These … return expectations. While contemporaneous short-term expectations are not countercyclical across all data sources, we find … higher than justified by investors' own subsequent short-term return expectations. This excess volatility in forward …

productivity, increased idiosyncratic stock return variation forecasts next-quarter real GDP growth, industrial production growth …