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, the real price of oil has tended to be highly persistent and volatile whenever rapid industrialization in a major world …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463721
reduce taxes on labor income, showing that such a policy could increase world productive capacity while being consistent with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464854
the world economy. We analyze the impact of the advent of fracking on the volatility of oil prices. Our model predicts a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455258
of both advanced and emerging countries during two periods of globalization -- the pre-World War I classical gold …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469694
well-known "supply-shock" explanation attributes both spikes to large food and energy shocks plus, in the case of 1973 … policy and (b) pointed to the far smaller impacts of more recent oil shocks as evidence against the supply-shock explanation …, and new econometric studies that have accumulated over the past quarter century. We find that the classic supply-shock …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464085
We study the impact of plausibly exogenous global food price shocks on local violence across the African continent. In food-producing areas, higher food prices reduce conflict over the control of territory (what we call "factor conflict") and increase conflict over the appropriation of surplus...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455624
produces roughly 40% of the world's corn. A heat wave in July adversely affected corn production. We extend earlier statistical …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460001
What are the shocks that drive economic fluctuations? I examine technology and money shocks in some detail, and briefly review the evidence on oil price and credit shocks. I conclude that none of these popular candidates accounts for the bulk of economic fluctuations. I then examine whether...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474230
Traditional approaches to structural vector autoregressions can be viewed as special cases of Bayesian inference arising from very strong prior beliefs. These methods can be generalized with a less restrictive formulation that incorporates uncertainty about the identifying assumptions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453546
across US refineries. We take advantage of this exogenous shock to input costs to study the nature of competition and the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453688