substitutes for each other as inputs into the refining sector. The model is calibrated to match oil market and macroeconomic data … crude oil production similar to the shale oil boom. Consistent with the data, our model predicts that light oil prices … addition, fuel prices fall and U.S. GDP rises. We then use our model to examine the potential implications of the former U …

limits future consumption, by shifting consumption to the present through lower present-day prices. We demonstrate that oil … futures responded negatively to daily changes in the prediction market's expectations that the Waxman-Markey bill -- the US …

.g., the Soviet Union). Moreover, using this practice, a powerful importer country can immediately share the cost of collusion …

-oil market in particular. We present model-free results that strongly suggest the presence of unspanned stochastic volatility in … the crude-oil market. We then develop a tractable model for pricing commodity derivatives in the presence of unspanned … stochastic volatility. The model features correlations between innovations to futures prices and volatility, quasi …

and other petroleum products, which we describe in the text and report in the appendix. These estimates allow us to draw a …

of its oil below market prices in an effort to solicit bribes, both in the form of direct cash bribes and in the form of … between the official selling price of Iraq's two crude oils (Basrah Light and Kirkuk) and the market price of several …

between two building blocks: specialization in non-tradables and financial market imperfections. We show that if a country has … a sufficiently large non-resource tradable sector, relative prices can be stable, even when the resource sector …-resource tradables: the less it produces of them, the greater the volatility of relative prices, the higher the interest rate the sector …

shipments to appraise the relation between increased use of rail to transport crude oil and the risk of safety incidents …