This paper assesses the prospects of a 2021 time bomb in SME failures triggered by the generous support policies enacted during the 2020 COVID-19 crisis. Policies implemented in 2020, on their own, do not create a 2021 "time-bomb" for SMEs. Rather, business failures and policy costs remain...

Transition in Central Europe is four years old. State firms which dominated the economy are struggling with market forces. A new private sector quickly emerged and has taken hold. Unemployment, which did not exist, is high and still increasing. Will this process of transition accelerate, or slow...

Aggregate and more micro data on trade between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico are used to attempt to assess the early effects of Mexican entry into NAFTA. Although the fraction of Mexican trade with the U.S. and Canada has risen sharply, a number of factors have contributed to this result. Mexican...

This paper is the first to study empirically the effects of European antidumping actions on import diversion from importers 'named' in an antidumping investigation, and potentially subject to protectionist measures, to countries not named' in the investigation. For this purpose we use a unique...

We evaluate the aggregate effects of changes in trade barriers when these changes can be implemented slowly over time and trade responds gradually to changes in trade barriers because firm-level trade costs make exporting a dynamic decision. Our model shows how expectations of changes in trade...

This paper analyzes the impact of exchange rate risk on global food supply chains. Although the theoretical literature suggests ambivalence regarding the sign and magnitude of this effect, most empirical studies indicate a negative association between exchange rate volatility and international...

We study whether tariff preferences conferred on South Korean goods through the implementation of the Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (KORUS) drew U.S. import demand away from other U.S. trading partners through the phenomenon known as trade diversion. In the two years following the...