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1
Monetary Policy and Short-Term Interest Rates : An Efficient Markets-Rational Expectations Approach
Mishkin, Frederic S.
-
1981
efficient markets-rational expectations
theory
to analyze empirically the relationship of money supply growth and short- term …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478425
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2
Investors' Portfolio Behavior Under Alternative Models of Long-Term Interest Rate Expectations : Unitary, Rational, or Autoregressive
Friedman, Benjamin M.
-
1980
This paper develops behavioral relationships explaining investors' demands for long-term bonds, using three alternative hypotheses about investors' expectations of future bond prices (yields). The results, based on U.S. 'data for six major categories of bond market investors, consistently...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478678
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3
Money Stock Control with Reserve and Interest Rate Instruments Under Rational Expectations
McCallum, Bennett T.
-
1982
This paper conducts a theoretical comparison of the potential effectiveness, in terms of money stock controllability, of interest rate and reserve instruments. Whereas previous studies have been basically static, the present analysis is carried out in the context of a dynamic macroeconomic model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478215
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4
Price Level Determinacy with an Interest Rate Policy Rule and Rational Expectations
McCallum, Bennett T.
-
1980
This paper reconsiders a result obtained by Sargent and Wallace, namely, that price level indeterminacy obtains in their well-known model if the monetary authorities adopt a policy feedback rule for the interest rate rather than the money stock. Since the Federal Reserve seems often to have used...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478574
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5
Exchange Rates and Fundamentals
Engel, Charles
-
2004
We show analytically that in a rational expectations present value model, an asset price manifests near random walk behavior if fundamentals are I(1) and the factor for discounting future fundamentals is near one. We argue that this result helps explain the well known puzzle that fundamental...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467971
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6
Federal Reserve Private Information and the Behavior of Interest Rates
Romer, Christina D.
-
1996
Many authors argue that asymmetric information between the Federal Reserve and the public is important to the conduct and the effects of monetary policy. This paper tests for the existence of such asymmetric information by examining Federal Reserve and commercial inflation forecasts. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473150
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7
Interest Rate Expectations Versus Forward Rates : Evidence From An Expectations Survey
Friedman, Benjamin M.
-
1978
The object of this paper is to test several familiar hypotheses about the relationship between the forward rates implied by the term structure and interest rate expectations, using the one ongoing systematic survey that samples market participants' expectations. The substitution of survey data...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478855
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8
The October 1979 Change in the Monetary Regime : Its Impact on the "Forecastability" of Interest Rates
Pesando, James E.
-
1986
Subsequent to the October 1979 shift in monetary policy in the United States, interest rates in North America not only reached unprecedented levels,but also exhibited unprecedented volatility. This paper shows that the anticipated quarterly changes in long-term rates associated with the rational...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477202
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9
Biased Surveys
Valchev, Rosen
;
Gemmi, Luca
-
National Bureau of Economic Research
-
2023
consistent with a model of strategic diversification incentives in
forecast
reporting. Our results caution against the use of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014337840
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10
Rational Expectations and Macroeconomic Forecasts
Zarnowitz, Victor
-
1983
at the time of the
forecast
. The frequencies of significant auto-correlations among errors so measured vary greatly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478033
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