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magnitude-dependent discounting with time distortion …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457571
, which can account for many of the known intertemporal choice anomalies, to discounting models. We conduct an out …-of-sample, cross-validated comparison of intertemporal choice models. Heuristic models outperform traditional utility discounting … models, including models of exponential and hyperbolic discounting. The best performing models predict choices by using a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457718
Personal experiences of economic outcomes, from global financial crises to individual-level job losses, can shape individual beliefs, risk attitudes, and choices for years to come. A growing literature on experience effects shows that individuals act as if past outcomes that they experienced...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012660014
field has been the application of neuroscience-based methods. Various techniques including neuroimaging, neuroendocrinology … affect infant brain development. We discuss whether there are truly worthwhile reasons for adding neuroscience and related …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479365
This paper surveys the field of asset pricing. The emphasis is on the interplay between theory and empirical work, and on the tradeoff between risk and return. Modern research seeks to understand the behavior of the stochastic discount factor (SDF) that prices all assets in the economy. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471180
We use discounted cash flow analysis to measure a country's fiscal capacity. Crucially, the discount rate applied to projected cash flows includes a GDP risk premium. We apply our valuation method to the CBO's projections for the U.S. federal government's deficit between 2022 and 2051 and debt...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013190996
A linearization of a rational expectations present value model for corporate stock prices produces a simple relation between the log dividend-price ratio and mathematical expectations of future log real dividend changes and future real discount rates. This relation can be tested using vector...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012476969
In a model where a variable Y[sub t] is proportional to the present value, with constant discount rate, of expected future values of a variable y[sub t] the "spread" S[sub t]= Y[sub t] - [theta sub t] will be stationary for some [theta] whether or not y[sub t]must be differenced to induce...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477190
In this paper, we estimate a rich model of college major choice using a panel of experimentally-derived data. Our estimation strategy combines two types of data: data on self-reported beliefs about future earnings from potential human capital decisions and survey-based measures of risk and time...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479309
The choice of discount rate has a significant impact on net benefit estimates when costs today have benefits over long time horizons. Standard U.S. government practice for cost-benefit analysis is to bound such analysis using two alternative rates. These rates are meant to represent the rate of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481060