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This paper proposes a method for separating economic time series into a smooth component whose mean varies over time (the trend') and a stationary component (the cycle'). The aim is to make the trends as smooth as possible while also producing cycles with plausible properties. While the main...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471343
modern behavioral economics. This chapter reviews theory and evidence on this topic, with the goal of facilitating more … processes, biases in belief updating, the representativeness heuristic as a possible unifying theory, and interactions between …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480852
expectations with less naïve learning rules. Our results suggest that fast and frugal robust heuristics may not be a second …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481880
Heuristic models have been proposed for many domains of choice. We compare heuristic models of intertemporal choice, which can account for many of the known intertemporal choice anomalies, to discounting models. We conduct an out-of-sample, cross-validated comparison of intertemporal choice...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457718
thinking may be important. Our results suggest that information-processing heuristics may be important even in markets with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461629
structure is relevant in many applications. We develop the theory underlying optimal menus of non-linear schedules and prove …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464839
Psychological evidence indicates that decision quality declines after an extensive session of decision-making, a phenomenon known as decision fatigue. We study whether decision fatigue affects analysts' judgments. Analysts cover multiple firms and often issue several forecasts in a single day....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453421
Little is known about the fiscal costs of natural disasters, especially regarding social safety nets that do not specifically target extreme weather events. This paper shows that US hurricanes lead to substantial increases in non-disaster government transfers, such as unemployment insurance and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456403
This paper studies the maturity and stream of payments of sovereign debt. Using Bloomberg bond data for eleven emerging economies, we document that countries react to crises by issuing debt with shortened maturity but back-load payment schedules. To account for this pattern, we develop a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457770
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000687104