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Prior to 2020, the Great Recession was the most important macroeconomic shock to the United States economy in generations. Millions lost jobs and homes. At its peak, one in ten workers who wanted a job could not find one. On an annual basis, the economy contracted by more than it had since the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482669
We use a detailed micro dataset on product availability to construct a direct high-frequency measure of consumer product shortages during the 2020-2021 pandemic. We document a widespread multi-fold rise in shortages in nearly all sectors early in the pandemic. Over time, the composition of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012629429
given level of exposure to imports from China, we find no evidence that minority workers are relatively more harmed than …. Overall, the China shock increased the Hispanic-white employment gap by about 5%, though these effects were short lived. In … China shock. The lasting effects of import competition in exposed areas were driven by white workers, while the experience …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013462694
China eventually becomes the world's saver and, thereby, the developed world's savoir with respect to its long …In previous studies that excluded China we predicted that tax hikes needed to pay benefits along the developed world …'s demographic transition would lead to capital shortage, reducing real wages per unit of human capital. Adding China to the model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467008
This work explores how Argentina overcame the Great Depression and asks whether active macroeconomic interventions made any contribution to the recovery. In particular, we study Argentine macroeconomic policy as it deviated from gold-standard orthodoxy after the final suspension of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471138
In this paper we analyze the evolution of the Mexican economy between 1995 and 1998. The remarkable quick recovery seen in aggregate activity has not been uniform across the economy. The tradable sector has grown strongly, while the non-tradable sector has recuperated only sluggishly. This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471758
When Roosevelt abandoned the gold standard in April 1933, he converted what had been effectively real government debt into nominal government debt to open the door to unbacked fiscal expansion. We argue that he followed a state-contingent fiscal rule that ran nominal-debt-financed primary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479581
We estimate an empirical model of consumption disasters using a new panel data set on personal consumer expenditure for 24 countries and more than 100 years, and study its implications for asset prices. The model allows for permanent and transitory effects of disasters that unfold over multiple...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462731
The future looked bright for Argentina in the early twentieth century. It had already achieved high levels of income per capita and was moving away from authoritarian government towards a more open democracy. Unfortunately, Argentina never finished the transition. The turning point occurred in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463440
We model the panic of 2008 as part of the wealth and substitution effects deriving from a housing price crash that began in 2006. The dissipation of the wealth effect stimulates a reorganization of the banking industry and increases in employment, GDP, and unemployment. The release of resources...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464201