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We review the findings of the literature on the benefits of international financial flows and find that they are quantitatively elusive. We then present evidence on the existence of a global cycle in gross cross border flows, asset prices and leverage and discuss its impact on monetary policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457495
For the past few decades, international macroeconomics has postulated the "trilemma": with free capital mobility, independent monetary policies are feasible if and only if exchange rates are floating. The global financial cycle transforms the trilemma into a "dilemma" or an "irreconcilable duo":...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457505
The revived Bretton Woods framework we proposed in 2003 remains a useful way to understand the international financial system. We document that the system survived the 2008 crisis. Looking forward, we argue that the system will continue to evolve as we expected. China is likely to graduate from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458214
Long half-lives of real exchange rates are often used as evidence against monetary sticky price models. In this study we show how exchange rate regimes alter the long-run dynamics and half-life of the real exchange rate, and we recast the classic defense of such models by Mussa (1986) from an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460316
We study the curious patterns of gold holding and trading by central banks during 1979-2010. With the exception of several discrete step adjustments, central banks keep maintaining passive stocks of gold, independently of the patterns of the real price of gold. We also observe the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460766
system: international liquidity and exchange rate management. Despite radical changes since World War II in the market …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461016
A large body of cross-country empirical evidence identifies monetary policy and trade integration as key determinants of business cycle co-movement. Partially consistent with this, many argue that the re-emergence of the gold standard allowed for the global transmission of a deflationary shock...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461732
rigidities. While the former attribute major contractions and massive unemployment to currency pegs, the latter find miniscule … connection between macroeconomic volatility and the average level of unemployment and in this way opens the door to large welfare …-standard-deviation decline in tradable output and a two-standard-deviation increase in the country interest rate premium, causes the unemployment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461811
We contribute to the debate on the macroeconomic effects of fiscal stimuli by showing that the impact of government expenditure shocks depends crucially on key country characteristics, such as the level of development, exchange rate regime, openness to trade, and public indebtedness. Based on a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462178
world data demand a statistical technique that allows parameters and regimes to shift frequently. Accordingly we here take …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463030