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revolutions. In the model, the average productivity of a new technology is uncertain and subject to learning. During technological …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466795
We consider several economic uncertainty indicators for the US and UK before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: implied stock market volatility, newspaper-based economic policy uncertainty, twitter chatter about economic uncertainty, subjective uncertainty about future business growth, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481613
This paper uses three different surveys of economic forecasts to assess both the support for and the properties of informational rigidities faced by agents. Specifically, we track the impulse responses of mean forecast errors and disagreement among agents after exogenous structural shocks. Our...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464063
Long-run forecasts of economic variables play an important role in policy, planning, and portfolio decisions. We consider long-horizon forecasts of average growth of a scalar variable, assuming that first differences are second-order stationary. The main contribution is the construction of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459791
as they are used in the countries in our sample. We denote these time lags as technology usage lags and compare them with … lags in real GDP per capita. We find that (i) technology usage lags are large, often comparable to lags in real GDP per … they replace combined with the usage lags that we document, lead us to infer that technology usage disparities might …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465984
-up mechanism through capital accumulation where technology is embodied in new capital goods. Using a putty-clay model of production …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467958
In this paper, we develop a model of technology adoption and economic growth in which households optimally obtain … between their growth rates will increase with the growth rate of available technology. By characterizing the optimal Ramsey … available technology. Our theory suggests that European education policies that favored specialized, vocational education might …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469295
, technology, and geography, and that none of these alone is sufficient to account for the diverse patterns of global growth. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459151
This paper evaluates the predictive content of a set of alternative monthly indicators of global economic activity for nowcasting and forecasting quarterly world GDP using mixed-frequency models. We find that a recently proposed indicator that covers multiple dimensions of the global economy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482234
Not all of that extra output will remain in the United States. If the trade deficit is reduced by three percent of GDP, the rise in exports and decline in imports will reduce output available for U.S. consumption and investment by about 0.3 percent a year
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462967