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A Specification Test for Speculative Bubbles
West, Kenneth D. - 1986
estimated in two ways. One may test for speculative bubbles, or fads, by testing whether the two estimates are the same. When … the test is applied to some annual U.S. stock market data, the data usually reject the null hypothesis of no bubbles. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477002
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Breaks in the Phillips Curve : Evidence from Panel Data
Smith, Simon C.; Timmermann, Allan; Wright, Jonathan H. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
We revisit time-variation in the Phillips curve, applying new Bayesian panel methods with breakpoints to US and European Union disaggregate data. Our approach allows us to accurately estimate both the number and timing of breaks in the Phillips curve. It further allows us to determine the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014250170
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Impulse Response Functions for Self-Exciting Nonlinear Models
Francis, Neville; Owyang, Michael T.; Soques, Daniel F. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
We calculate impulse response functions from regime-switching models where the driving variable can respond to the shock. Two methods used to estimate the impulse responses in these models are generalized impulse response functions and local projections. Local projections depend on the observed...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014372466
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Selection-Neglect in the NFT Bubble
Huang, Dong; Goetzmann, William N. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
Using transaction data from a large non-fungible token (NFT) trading platform, this paper examines how the behavioral bias of selection-neglect interacts with extrapolative beliefs, accelerating the boom and delaying the crash in the recent NFT bubble. We show that the price-volume relationship...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322885
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Rational Finite Bubbles
Allen, Franklin - 1991
There has been a long-running debate about whether stock market prices are determined by fundamentals. To date no consensus has been reached. An important issue in this debate concerns the circumstances in which deviations from fundamentals are consistent with rational behavior. A...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012475283
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The Macroeconomics of Rational Bubbles : A User's Guide
Martin, Alberto - 2018
This paper provides a guide to macroeconomic applications of the theory of rational bubbles. It shows that rational … bubbles can be easily incorporated into standard macroeconomic models, and illustrates how they can be used to account for … important macroeconomic phenomena. It also discusses the welfare implications of rational bubbles and the role of policy in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453479
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Monetary Policy and Rational Asset Price Bubbles
Galí, Jordi - 2013
I examine the impact of alternative monetary policy rules on a rational asset price bubble, through the lens of an overlapping generations model with nominal rigidities. A systematic increase in interest rates in response to a growing bubble is shown to enhance the fluctuations in the latter,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459855
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A Sharp Test for the Judge Leniency Design
Coulibaly, Mohamed; Hsu, Yu-Chin; Mourifié, Ismael; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
We propose a new specification test to assess the validity of the judge leniency design. We characterize a set of sharp testable implications, which exploit all the relevant information in the observed data distribution to detect violations of the judge leniency design assumptions. The proposed...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544734
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Identification of Non-Additive Fixed Effects Models : Is the Return to Teacher Quality Homogeneous?
Hahn, Jinyong; Singleton, John D.; Yildiz, Neşe - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
Panel or grouped data are often used to allow for unobserved individual heterogeneity in econometric models via fixed effects. In this paper, we discuss identification of a panel data model in which the unobserved heterogeneity both enters additively and interacts with treatment variables. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322772
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Credible Numbers : A Procedure for Reporting Statistical Precision in Parameter Estimates
Astier, Nicolas; Wolak, Frank A. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
Econometric software packages typically report a fixed number of decimal digits for coefficient estimates and their associated standard errors. This practice misses the opportunity to use rounding rules that convey statistical precision. Using insights from the testing statistical hypotheses of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014486216