This paper studies the predictability of ultra high-frequency stock returns and durations to relevant price, volume and transactions events, using machine learning methods. We find that, contrary to low frequency and long horizon returns, where predictability is rare and inconsistent,...

We theoretically characterize the behavior of machine learning asset pricing models. We prove that expected out-of-sample model performance--in terms of SDF Sharpe ratio and test asset pricing errors--is improving in model parameterization (or "complexity"). Our empirical findings verify the...

We survey the nascent literature on machine learning in the study of financial markets. We highlight the best examples of what this line of research has to offer and recommend promising directions for future research. This survey is designed for both financial economists interested in grasping...

Missing data for return predictors is a common problem in cross sectional asset pricing. Most papers do not explicitly discuss how they deal with missing data but conventional treatments focus on the subset of firms with no missing data for any predictor or impute the unconditional mean. Both...

We demonstrate that predictable uninformed cash flows forecast market and individual stock returns. Buying pressure from dividend payments (announced weeks prior) predicts higher value-weighted market returns, with returns for the top quintile of payment days four times higher than the lowest....

We integrate a high-frequency monetary event study into a mixed-frequency macro-finance model and structural estimation. The model and estimation allow for jumps at Fed announcements in investor beliefs, providing granular detail on why markets react to central bank communications. We find that...

We present an alternative expectation formation mechanism that helps rationalize well known asset pricing anomalies, such as the predictability of excess returns, excess volatility, and the equity-premium puzzle. As with rational expectations (RE), the expectation formation mechanism we consider...

We present a dynamic model that links characteristic-based return predictability to systematic factors that determine the evolution of firm fundamentals. In the model, an economy-wide disruption process reallocates profits from existing businesses to new projects and thus generates a source of...