This paper estimates that the macroeconomic damages from climate change are six times larger than previously thought. We exploit natural variability in global temperature and rely on time-series variation. A 1°C increase in global temperature leads to a 12% decline in world GDP. Global...

We develop a novel method for assessing the effect of constraints imposed by spatially-fixed natural resources on aggregate economic output. We apply it to estimate and compare the projected effects of climate change and population growth over the course of the 21st century, by country and...

We investigate the short- and long-term effects of a natural gas boom in an economy where energy can be produced with coal, natural gas, or clean sources and the direction of technology is endogenous. In the short run, a natural gas boom reduces carbon emissions by inducing substitution away...

A unilateral carbon tax trades off the distortionary costs of taxation and the future gains from slowing down global warming. Because the cost is local and immediate, whereas the benefit is global and delayed, this tradeoff tends to be unfavorable to unilateral carbon taxes. We show that this...

Does a permanent rise in temperature decrease the level or growth rate of GDP in affected countries? Differing answers to this question lead prominent estimates of climate damages to diverge by an order of magnitude. This paper combines indirect evidence on economic growth with new empirical...

Shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are perhaps the most influential economic policy analyses today. My paper evaluates their development, natural associations, logical consequences, and economic identification. All five SSP baseline scenarios are predicting scenarios that historical...

Increased temperature-related mortality is predicted to be one of the largest contributors to future economic damages from climate change globally, with declines in cold-related deaths in some regions outweighed by increases in heat-related deaths in others. Changes in temperature could also...

The durability of the transportation capital stock slows down the pace of decarbonization since newer vintages feature cutting-edge technology. If older vintages were to be retired sooner, the social cost of travel would decline. This paper analyzes and explores the viability of a potential...

In the face of rising climate risk, financial institutions may adapt by transferring such risk to securitizers that have the skill and expertise to build diversified pools, such as Mortgage-Backed Securities. In diversified pools, exposure to climate risk may be a drop in the ocean of cash...

Do governments systematically intervene in agricultural markets in response to climate shocks? If so, what are the aggregate and distributional consequences? We construct a global dataset of agricultural policies and extreme heat exposure by country and crop since 1980. We find that extreme heat...