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Expectations Data in Structural Microeconomic Models

Koşar, Gizem; O'Dea, Cormac - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

A growing literature uses now widely-available data on beliefs and expectations in the estimation of structural models. In this chapter, we review this literature, with an emphasis on models of individual and household behavior. We first show how expectations data have been used to relax strong...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210122

On Robust Inference in Time Series Regression

Baillie, Richard; Diebold, Francis X.; Kapetanios, George; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

Least squares regression with heteroskedasticity consistent standard errors ("OLS-HC regression") has proved very … standard errors ("OLS-HAC regression"). First, in plausible time-series environments, OLS parameter estimates can be … avoided by the use of a simple and easily-implemented dynamic regression procedure, which we call DURBIN. We demonstrate the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014576582

Rationalizable Learning

Caplin, Andrew; Martin, Daniel; Marx, Philip - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

The central question we address in this paper is: what can an analyst infer from choice data about what a decision maker has learned? The key constraint we impose, which is shared across models of Bayesian learning, is that any learning must be rationalizable. To implement this constraint, we...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013537767

Inflation and Trading

Schnorpfeil, Philip; Weber, Michael; Hackethal, Andreas - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

We study how investors respond to inflation combining a customized survey experiment with trading data at a time of historically high inflation. Investors' beliefs about the stock return-inflation relation are very heterogeneous in the cross section and on average too optimistic. Moreover, many...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544748

Do Conflict of Interests Disclosures Work? : Evidence from Citations in Medical Journals

Leuz, Christian; Malani, Anup; Muhn, Maximilian; Jakab, … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

Financial ties between drug companies and medical researchers are thought to bias studies published in medical journals. To enable readers to account for such bias, most medical journals require authors to disclose potential conflicts of interest. We examine whether disclosure reduces article...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014226124

Households' Response to the Wealth Effects of Inflation

Schnorpfeil, Philip; Weber, Michael; Hackethal, Andreas - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

We study the redistributive effects of inflation combining administrative bank data with an information provision experiment during an episode of historic inflation. On average, households are well-informed about prevailing inflation and are concerned about its impact on their wealth; yet, while...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014372429

Contamination Bias in Linear Regressions

Goldsmith-Pinkham, Paul; Hull, Peter; Kolesár, Michal - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

We study the interpretation of regressions with multiple treatments and flexible controls. Such regressions are often used to analyze stratified randomized control trials with multiple intervention arms, to estimate value-added (for, e.g., teachers) with observational data, and to leverage the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334327

Biased Surveys

Valchev, Rosen; Gemmi, Luca - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

We find evidence suggesting that surveys of professional forecasters are biased by strategic incentives. First, we find that individual forecasts overreact to idiosyncratic information but underreact to common information. Second, we show that this bias is not present in forecasts data that is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014337840

Mispricing Narratives after Social Unrest

Ba, Bocar A.; Ndiaye, Abdoulaye; Rivera, Roman; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

We study how negative sentiment around an industry impacts beliefs and behaviors, focusing on demands for racial justice after the murder of George Floyd and the salience of the "defund the police" movement. We assess stakeholder beliefs on the impact of protests on the stock prices of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014635693

(Pro-) Social Learning and Strategic Disclosure

Bénabou, Roland; Vellodi, Nikhil - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

We study a sequential experimentation model with endogenous feedback. Agents choose between a safe and risky action, the latter generating stochastic rewards. When making this choice, each agent is selfishly motivated (myopic). However, agents can disclose their experiences to a public record,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544761

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