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Exchange Rate Disconnect Revisited
Chahrour, Ryan; Cormun, Vito; De Leo, Pierre; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
We find that variation in expected U.S. productivity explains over half of U.S. dollar/G7 exchange rate fluctuations. Both correctly-anticipated changes in productivity and expectational noise, which influences the expectation of productivity but not its eventual realization, have large effects....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014576625
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Quantities and Covered-Interest Parity
Moskowitz, Tobias J.; Ross, Chase P.; Ross, Sharon Y.; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
Studies of intermediated arbitrage argue that bank balance sheets are an important consideration, yet little evidence exists on banks' positioning in this context. Using confidential supervisory data (covering $25 trillion in daily notional exposures) we examine banks' positions in connection...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014635670
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Identifying Shocks to Systematic Risk in Times of Crisis
Boudoukh, Jacob; Liu, Yukun; Moskowitz, Tobias J.; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
We characterize how risk evolves during a crisis. Using high-frequency data, we find that the first two principal components (PCs) of the covariance matrix of global asset returns experience large, sudden, and temporary spikes coinciding with well-known crises - Covid-19 pandemic, Global...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014635656
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Dollar Asset Holdings and Hedging Around the Globe
Du, Wenxin; Huber, Amy W. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
comprehensive estimate of foreign investors' U.S. dollar (USD) security holdings and currency hedging practices. We document four … raised their USD hedge ratio by an average of 15 percentage points, despite higher hedging costs implied by large and … persistent deviations from covered interest-rate parity. The total FX hedging demand from these sector reached $2 trillion in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544731
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When do Treasuries Earn the Convenience Yield? : A Hedging Perspective
Acharya, Viral V.; Laarits, Toomas - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
We document that the convenience yield of U.S. Treasuries exhibits properties that are consistent with a hedging … inflation expectations that erode the hedging properties of U.S. Treasuries and other fixed-income money-like assets, inducing a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014436994
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Uncertainty Shocks, Capital Flows, and International Risk Spillovers
Akinci, Ozge; Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem; Queralto, Albert - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
Foreign investors' changing appetite for risk-taking have been shown to be a key determinant of the global financial cycle. Such fluctuations in risk sentiment also correlate with the dynamics of UIP premia, capital flows, and exchange rates. To understand how these risk sentiment changes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210054
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Portfolio Flows and Household Portfolios
Kaat, Daniel Marcel te; Ma, Chang; Rebucci, Alessandro - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
In this paper, we show that cross-border portfolio flows around the peak of the European Crisis induced households to rebalance their portfolios toward housing. Estimating difference-in-differences regressions around Draghi's "Whatever It Take" speech in July 2012 with household data from the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014512064
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The Exchange Rate as an Industrial Policy
Ottonello, Pablo; Perez, Diego J.; Witheridge, William - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
We study the role of exchange rates in industrial policy. We construct an open-economy macroeconomic framework with production externalities and show that the desirability of these policies critically depends on the dynamic patterns of externalities. When they are stronger in earlier stages of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544799
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International Policy Coordination in a Multisectoral Model of Trade and Health Policy
Acharya, Viral V.; Jiang, Zhengyang; Richmond, Robert J.; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
We analyze international trade and health policy coordination during a pandemic by developing a two-economy, two-sector trade model integrated into a micro-founded SIR model of infection dynamics. Disease transmission intensity can differ by goods (manufactured versus services and domestic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014576595
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Tracing the International Transmission of a Crisis Through Multinational Firms
Biermann, Marcus; Huber, Kilian - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
We show that multinational firms transmit shocks across countries through their internal capital markets. We study a credit supply shock to parent firms in Germany. International affiliates outside Germany supported their parents through internal lending, became financially constrained...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014247983