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Valuation of Variance Forecast with Simulated Option Markets

Engle, Robert F. - 1990

estimation period may be preferable to estimating specification parameters from all available observations. Finally, the hedging …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012475683

Forecasting Crashes : Trading Volume, Past Returns and Conditional Skewness in Stock Prices

Chen, Joseph - 2000

This paper is an investigation into the determinants of asymmetries in stock returns. We develop a series of cross-sectional regression specifications which attempt to forecast skewness in the daily returns of individual stocks. Negative skewness is most pronounced in stocks that have...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471074

Tests of Excess Forecast Volatility in the Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets

Froot, Kenneth A. - 1987

Simple regression tests that have power against the alternatives that. asset prices and expected future asset returns are excessively volatile are developed and performed for the foreign exchange and stock markets. These tests have a number of advantages over alternative, variance hounds...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012476706

Behavioralize This! International Evidence on Autocorrelation Patterns of Stock Index and Futures Returns

Ahn, Dong-Hyun - 1999

This paper investigates the relation between returns on stock indices and their corresponding futures contracts in order to evaluate potential explanations for the pervasive yet anomalous evidence of positive, short-horizon portfolio autocorrelations. Using a simple theoretical framework, we...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471575

Do Asset Prices Reflect Fundamentals? Freshly Squeezed Evidence from the OJ Market

Boudoukh, Jacob - 2003

fundamentals, focusing primarily on temperature. We show that when theory clearly identifies the fundamental, i.e., at temperatures …-thirds of the entire winter return variability occurs on these days. Moreover, when theory suggests no such relation, i.e., at … is good news for the theory and for market efficiency, not bad news. In terms of residual FCOJ return volatility, we also …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469188

On the Relationship Between the Conditional Mean and Volatility of Stock Returns : A Latent VAR Approach

Brandt, Michael W. - 2002

We model the conditional mean and volatility of stock returns as a latent vector autoregressive (VAR) process to study the contemporaneous and intertemporal relationship between expected returns and risk in a flexible statistical framework and without relying on exogenous predictors. We find a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469657

Answering the Critics : Yes, ARCH Models Do Provide Good Volatility Forecasts

Andersen, Torben G. - 1997

Volatility permeates modern financial theories and decision making processes. As such, accurate measures and good forecasts of future volatility are critical for the implementation and evaluation of asset pricing theories. In response to this, a voluminous literature has emerged for modeling the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472795

Bayesian Variable Selection for Nowcasting Economic Time Series

Scott, Steven L. - 2013

We consider the problem of short-term time series forecasting (nowcasting) when there are more possible predictors than observations. Our approach combines three Bayesian techniques: Kalman filtering, spike-and-slab regression, and model averaging. We illustrate this approach using search engine...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459094

Semiparametric Estimates of Monetary Policy Effects : String Theory Revisited

Angrist, Joshua D. - 2013

We develop a flexible semiparametric time series estimator that is then used to assess the causal effect of monetary policy interventions on macroeconomic aggregates. Our estimator captures the average causal response to discrete policy interventions in a macro-dynamic setting, without the need...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459297

Bargaining over Babies : Theory, Evidence, and Policy Implications

Doepke, Matthias - 2016

It takes a woman and a man to make a baby. This fact suggests that for a birth to take place, the parents should first agree on wanting a child. Using newly available data on fertility preferences and outcomes, we show that indeed, babies are likely to arrive only if both parents desire one, and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456602

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