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We propose a novel identification strategy of imposing sign restrictions directly on the impulse responses of a large set of variables in a Bayesian factor-augmented vector autoregression. We conceptualize and formalize conditions under which every additional sign restriction imposed can be...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456932
preference or more generally a demand shock. More recently two other explanations have been advocated: surprise changes in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012454968
This paper considers VAR models incorporating many time series that interact through a few dynamic factors. Several econometric issues are addressed including estimation of the number of dynamic factors and tests for the factor restrictions imposed on the VAR. Structural VAR identification based...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467213
This paper proposes a new approach to identifying the effects of monetary policy shocks in an international vector autoregression. Using high-frequency data on the prices of Fed Funds futures contracts, we measure the impact of the surprise component of the FOMC-day Federal Reserve policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469038
Most empirical analyses of monetary policy have been confined to frameworks in which the Federal Reserve is implicitly assumed to exploit only a limited amount of information, despite the fact that the Fed actively monitors literally thousands of economic time series. This article explores the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470341
rates. The temporal pattern of the depreciation in U.S. nominal exchange rates following a positive monetary policy shock is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474691
More than fifty years ago, Friedman and Schwartz examined historical data for the United States and found evidence of pro-cyclical movements in the money stock, which led corresponding movements in output. We find similar correlations in more recent data; these appear most clearly when Divisia...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456875
are consistent across approaches and most likely medium. Alternative monetary policy shock measures from estimated Taylor …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461625
This paper develops a structural VAR model to measure how a shock to one country can affect the GDP of other countries …. It uses trade linkages to estimate the multiplier effects of a shock as it is transmitted through other countries' output …-trade matrix. For example, due to these output-multiplier effects, a shock to one country can have a large impact on countries that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470116
This paper investigates empirically and attempts to identify the sources of real exchange rate fluctuations since the collapse of Bretton Woods. The paper's first two sections survey and extend earlier, non-structural empirical work on this subject by Campbell and Clarida (1987), Meese and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474278