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tackle several measurement issues assessing a plethora of state-of-the-art volatility forecasting models. We then examine the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459667
Volatility permeates modern financial theories and decision making processes. As such, accurate measures and good … forecasts of future volatility are critical for the implementation and evaluation of asset pricing theories. In response to this …, a voluminous literature has emerged for modeling the temporal dependencies in financial market volatility at the daily …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472795
We combine annual stock market data for the most important equity markets of the last four centuries: the Netherlands/U.K. (1629-1812), U.K. (1813-1870) and U.S. (1871-2015). We show that dividend yields are stationary and consistently forecast returns. The documented predictability holds for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457852
) levels of volatility. These results provide a novel perspective on both the equity risk premium and excess volatility puzzles …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481562
This paper presents a bound on the variance of the price-dividend ratio and a decomposition of the variance of the price-dividend ratio into components that reflect variation in expected future discount rates and variation in expected future dividend growth. Unobserved discount rates needed to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012475884
, such as the predictability of excess returns, excess volatility, and the equity-premium puzzle. As with rational …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470997
We propose a comprehensive measure of systematic risk for corporate bonds as a nonlinear function of robust risk factors and find a significantly positive link between systematic risk and the time-series and cross-section of future bond returns. We also find a positive but insignificant relation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479944
This paper explores the effect of equity volatility on corporate bond yields. Panel data for the late 1990's show that … idiosyncratic firm-level volatility can explain as much cross-sectional variation in yields as can credit ratings. This finding …, together with the upward trend in idiosyncratic equity volatility documented by Campbell, Lettau, Malkiel, and Xu (2001), helps …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469753
We re-examine the Fama (1984) puzzle - the finding that ex post depreciation and interest differentials are negatively correlated, contrary to what theory suggests - for eight advanced country exchange rates against the US dollar, over the period up to February 2016. The rejection of the joint...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453372
We show that volatility movements have first-order implications for consumption dynamics and asset prices. Volatility … news affects the stochastic discount factor and carries a separate risk premium. In the data, volatility risks are … aggregate wealth and the cross-sectional differences in risk premia. Estimation of our volatility risks based model yields an …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460556