Showing 1 - 10 of 868
for (and against) each putative bias, and I highlight when and how different biases may be related to each other. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480852
bias leading to a large body of related empirical work, with recent innovations in settings where decision makers are … bias in decision making in such settings. Our results call into question recent conclusions about racial bias among bail … differences in underlying individual characteristics, or by biased decision makers. Becker (1957) proposed an outcome test for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481105
Outcome bias occurs when an evaluator considers ex-post outcomes when judging whether a choice was correct, ex-ante. We … formalize this cognitive bias in a simple model of distorted Bayesian updating. We then examine strategy changes made by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461180
We partner with a large US payment-processing company to run a 5-year, 10 wave panel survey of incentivized quarterly sales forecasts on over 6,000 firms. We match firm predictions to proprietary revenue data to assess accuracy. We find firms forecast poorly, with issues of inaccuracy,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015195030
relative to non-coethnics. The results run strongly against the common presumption of extensive ethnic bias among ordinary …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456955
and show they behave well in realistic scenarios, correcting the large bias problem of the full sample estimator. We use … data from the National JTPA Study and the Tennessee STAR experiment to demonstrate the performance of alternative …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458921
The favorite-longshot bias describes the longstanding empirical regularity that betting odds provide biased estimates … misperceptions of probability drive the favorite-longshot bias, as suggested by Prospect Theory …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462728
This paper considers causal inference and sample selection bias in non-experimental settings in which: (i) few units in …-treatment characteristics. We propose the use of propensity score matching methods and implement them using data from the NSW experiment … and compare the estimates of the treatment effect obtained using our methods to the benchmark results from the experiment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471982
We conduct a randomized field experiment to quantify biases that affect consumers of addictive goods: present …-biased preferences, naïve beliefs regarding present bias, and projection-biased beliefs over future abstinence. These biases reflect … important theoretical and policy ramifications. Our experiment employs a new approach for remote monitoring to ensure truthful …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480466
imprecise (and noisy) mental representation of the decision situation. In this model, risk aversion is predicted without any … need for a nonlinear utility-of-wealth function, and instead results from a sort of perceptual bias -- but one that … represents an optimal Bayesian decision, given the limitations of the mental representation of the situation. We propose a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455387