for (and against) each putative bias, and I highlight when and how different biases may be related to each other. The …

Outcome bias occurs when an evaluator considers ex-post outcomes when judging whether a choice was correct, ex-ante. We … formalize this cognitive bias in a simple model of distorted Bayesian updating. We then examine strategy changes made by …

Psychological evidence indicates that decision quality declines after an extensive session of decision-making, a … phenomenon known as decision fatigue. We study whether decision fatigue affects analysts' judgments. Analysts cover multiple … the number of forecasts the analyst has already issued increases. Also consistent with decision fatigue, we find that the …

Despite decades of research on heuristics and biases, empirical evidence on the effect of large incentives - as present … reliance on intuitions. In none of the tasks are very high stakes sufficient to de-bias participants, or come even close to …

The favorite-longshot bias describes the longstanding empirical regularity that betting odds provide biased estimates … misperceptions of probability drive the favorite-longshot bias, as suggested by Prospect Theory …

This paper considers causal inference and sample selection bias in non-experimental settings in which: (i) few units in …-treatment characteristics. We propose the use of propensity score matching methods and implement them using data from the NSW experiment … and compare the estimates of the treatment effect obtained using our methods to the benchmark results from the experiment …

This paper develops and applies semiparametric econometric methods to estimate the form of selection bias that arises … econometric selection model which represents the bias solely as a function of the probability of participation; and (c) the method … of difference-in-differences. Using data from an experiment on a prototypical social program combined with unusually rich …

teachers' classrooms, prior research has largely focused on the validity of value-added measures. We conduct an experiment …

imprecise (and noisy) mental representation of the decision situation. In this model, risk aversion is predicted without any … need for a nonlinear utility-of-wealth function, and instead results from a sort of perceptual bias -- but one that … represents an optimal Bayesian decision, given the limitations of the mental representation of the situation. We propose a …

relative to non-coethnics. The results run strongly against the common presumption of extensive ethnic bias among ordinary …