volatility is not necessarily a sufficient statistic for the likelihood of large downturns. Rather, depending on the shape of the …

-cycle volatility, while preserving the model's properties in terms of comovement, and relative volatilities. In contrast, optimism is … not a useful source of volatility in our model …

impact of a shock can be boiled down into two components: its "pure" technology effect; and its effect on allocative …

. A crisis occurs when a small shock then causes a large change in the information environment. Agents suddenly have …

The extent and direction of causation between micro volatility and business cycles are debated. We examine, empirically …

the direct impact of a shock and the magnitudes of the downstream and the upstream indirect effects. We then investigate … through the input-output network, with a pattern broadly consistent with theory. Quantitatively, the network-based propagation …, capturing the fact that the local propagation of a shock to an industry will fall more heavily on other industries that tend to …

important to aggregate volatility, even after I remove observable aggregate shocks from the data. Local spillovers are … particularly important, explaining between 15 and 36 percent of manufacturing employment volatility …