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Fluctuations in Overseas Travel by Americans, 1820 to 2000

Dupont, Brandon - 2009

There were substantial fluctuations in the numbers of American overseas travelers, especially before World War II. These fluctuations in travel around the robust, long term upward trend are the focus of this paper. We first identify those fluctuations in the raw data and then try to explain the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463801

Predicting Insurance Demand from Risk Attitudes

Jaspersen, Johannes G. - 2019

Can measured risk attitudes and associated structural models predict insurance demand? In an experiment (n = 1,730), we …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480452

The Subprime Crisis and House Price Appreciation

Goetzmann, William N. - 2009

substantiates both supply and demand effects of past price trends in housing markets, particularly with respect to subprime mortgage …-loan collateral values may have affected both the demand and the supply of mortgages. Standard time series models using repeat …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463316

How Well Do Structural Demand Models Work? Counterfactual Predictions in School Choice

Pathak, Parag A. - 2017

Discrete choice demand models are widely used for counterfactual policy simulations, yet their out … choice models of school demand. In 2013, Boston Public Schools considered several new choice plans that differ in where …, suggesting that the choice models are indeed "structural." Our findings show that structural demand models can effectively …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453696

Demand Modeling, Forecasting, and Counterfactuals, Part I

Pathak, Parag A. - 2014

discrete choice models of demand compared to simpler alternatives. In 2013, Boston Public Schools (BPS) proposed alternative …. Pathak and Shi (2013) estimated discrete choice models of demand using families' historical choices and these demand models … of discrete choice models of demand in our context …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458802

Forecasting with Dynamic Panel Data Models

Liu, Laura - 2018

This paper considers the problem of forecasting a collection of short time series using cross sectional information in …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480753

Forecasts in a Slightly Misspecified Finite Order VAR

Müller, Ulrich K. - 2011

We propose a Bayesian procedure for exploiting small, possibly long-lag linear predictability in the innovations of a finite order autoregression. We model the innovations as having a log-spectral density that is a continuous mean-zero Gaussian process of order 1/√T. This local embedding makes...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461943

DSGE Model-Based Forecasting of Non-modelled Variables

Schorfheide, Frank - 2009

This paper develops and illustrates a simple method to generate a DSGE model-based forecast for variables that do not explicitly appear in the model (non-core variables). We use auxiliary regressions that resemble measurement equations in a dynamic factor model to link the non-core variables to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463776

Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?

Stock, James H. - 2006

Forecasts of the rate of price inflation play a central role in the formulation of monetary policy, and forecasting … forecasting puzzles. It appears currently to be difficult for multivariate forecasts to improve on forecasts made using this time …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466341

Multi-Period Corporate Failure Prediction with Stochastic Covariates

Duffie, Darrell - 2004

We provide maximum likelihood estimators of term structures of conditional probabilities of bankruptcy over relatively long time horizons, incorporating the dynamics of firm-specific and macroeconomic covariates. We find evidence in the U.S. industrial machinery and instruments sector, based on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467947

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