In the single-IV model, researchers commonly rely on t-ratio-based inference, even though the literature has quantified its potentially severe large-sample distortions. Building on the approach for correcting inference of Stock and Yogo (2005), we introduce the tF critical value function,...

To address the well-established large-sample invalidity of the +/-1.96 critical values for the t-ratio in the single variable just-identified IV model, applied research typically qualifies the inference based on the first-stage-F (Staiger and Stock (1997) and Stock and Yogo (2005)). We fully...

Benchmark finance and macroeconomic models appear to deliver conflicting estimates of the natural rate and bond risk premia. This natural rate puzzle applies not only in the U.S. but across many advanced economies. We use a unified no-arbitrage macro- finance model with two trend factors to...