, still fits the post-2020 US data well and that changes in short term inflation expectations induced by supply shocks likely … inflation expectations. Given the difficulty of reproducing these dynamics under rational expectations, we propose and evaluate …, which drive persistent inflation dynamics through their effect of expectations. We show that departure from full rationality …

surveys of forecasts as a direct measure of expectations, as this would overestimate the likely deviations from rational … expectations, the information precision and the degree of disagreement …

across different horizons and real-time datasets. To further improve performances when forecasting with machine learning, we …