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On the Fragility of the Nonlinear Phillips Curve View of Recent Inflation

Beaudry, Paul; Hou, Chenyu; Portier, Franck - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2025

expectations. Our finding suggest that the evidence in support of a nonlinear Phillips curve is very fragile …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015326515

The Dominant Role of Expectations and Broad-Based Supply Shocks in Driving Inflation

Beaudry, Paul; Hou, Chenyu; Portier, Franck - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

, still fits the post-2020 US data well and that changes in short term inflation expectations induced by supply shocks likely … inflation expectations. Given the difficulty of reproducing these dynamics under rational expectations, we propose and evaluate …, which drive persistent inflation dynamics through their effect of expectations. We show that departure from full rationality …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014528362

Biased Surveys

Valchev, Rosen; Gemmi, Luca - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

surveys of forecasts as a direct measure of expectations, as this would overestimate the likely deviations from rational … expectations, the information precision and the degree of disagreement …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014337840

Nowcasting World Trade with Machine Learning : a Three-Step Approach

Chinn, Menzie David; Meunier, Baptiste; Stumpner, Sebastian - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

across different horizons and real-time datasets. To further improve performances when forecasting with machine learning, we …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322806

Filtering with Limited Information

Drautzburg, Thorsten; Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

We propose a new tool to filter non-linear dynamic models that does not require the researcher to specify the model fully and can be implemented without solving the model. If two conditions are satisfied, we can use a flexible statistical model and a known measurement equation to back out the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014635717

What Do Long Data Tell Us About the Inflation Hike Post COVID-19 Pandemic?

Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie; Uribe, Martín - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

To what extent is the recent spike in inflation driven by a change in its permanent component? We estimate a semi-structural model of output, inflation, and the nominal interest rate in the United States over the period 1900-2021. The model predicts that between 2019 and 2021 the permanent...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013362011

Comparing Past and Present Inflation

Bolhuis, Marijn A.; Cramer, Judd N. L.; Summers, … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

There have been important methodological changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over time. These distort comparisons of inflation from different periods, which have become more prevalent as inflation has risen to 40-year highs. To better contextualize the current run-up in inflation, this...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334335

The Drivers of Post-Pandemic Inflation

Giannone, Domenico; Primiceri, Giorgio E. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

Post-covid inflation was predominantly driven by unexpectedly strong demand forces, not only in the United States, but also in the Euro Area. In comparison, the inflationary impact of adverse supply shocks was less pronounced, even though these shocks significantly constrained economic activity....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015056186

How Curvy is the Phillips Curve?

Bunn, Philip; Anayi, Lena; Bloom, Nicholas; Mizen, Paul; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

Macro data suggests a convex relationship between inflation and economic slack, but identifying causality is challenging. Using micro data from large panel surveys of UK and US firms we show that the response of prices to demand shocks is also convex at the firm level. We obtain similar results...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015171637

New Pricing Models, Same Old Phillips Curves?

Auclert, Adrien; Rigato, Rodolfo D.; Rognlie, Matthew; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

We show that, in a broad class of menu cost models, the dynamics of aggregate inflation in response to arbitrary shocks to aggregate costs are nearly the same as in Calvo models with suitably chosen Calvo adjustment frequencies. We first prove that the canonical menu cost model is first-order...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334481