inflation and the pre-Accord peg. In this counterfactual, debt/GDP declines only to 74% in 1974, not 23% as in actual history …The fall in the U.S. public debt/GDP ratio from 106% in 1946 to 23% in 1974 is often attributed to high rates of … economic growth. This paper examines the roles of three other factors: primary budget surpluses, surprise inflation, and pegged …

This paper studies the relationship between inflation, output, money and interest rates in the euro area, using data … power for future inflation. The real money gap contains more information about future inflation than the output gap and the … Eurosystem's money-growth indicator is an inferior indicator of future inflation …

interest, inflation, currency depreciation and inflation differentials. Forward rates are related to these expected future … variables via combinations of term, inflation and foreign exchange risk premia. A unified derivation, discussion and comparison …

future path of inflation. Mishkin (1990) has recently shown that the spread between the 12-month and 3-month interest rates … helps to predict the difference between the 12-month and 3-month inflation rates. His approach however, lacks a theoretical … the problem of predicting the inflation spread. It is shown that the appropriate indicator of expected inflation can make …

fluctuations in expected inflation, is why a strong Fisher effect occurs only for certain periods but not for others. This paper … resolves this puzzle by reexamining the relationship between inflation and interest rates with modern time-series techniques …. Recognition that the level of inflation and interest rates may contain stochastic trends suggests that the apparent ability of …

Switzerland. Even with wide differences in inflation processes across these countries, there is we find strong evidence that the … term structure does have significant forecasting ability for future changes in inflation, particularly so at long …

short-run inflation rate. Over the last century real stock prices have shown little reaction to changes in inflation rates …

returns on nominal bonds, the covariation of realized real interest rates and real asset returns with inflation, and the … ability of nominal interest rates to predict inflation and nominal stock returns …

We consider the puzzling behavior of interest rates and inflation in the United States and the United Kingdom between … World War I; the average inflation rate was 3.8 percentage points higher in the second period than in the first. Yet nominal … consistent with rational expectations if inflation were not forecastable, and indeed univariate tests show little sign of serial …