Showing 1 - 10 of 1,289
loading on the expected real GDP growth rate is a priced risk measure. A fully tradable, ex-ante portfolio formed on this …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544787
Central banks across the globe introduced large-scale asset purchase programs to address the unprecedented circumstances experienced during the pandemic. Many of these programs were announced as open-ended to shock-and-awe market participants and restore confidence in financial markets. This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014486207
Using text from 200 million pages of 13,000 US local newspapers and machine learning methods, we construct a 170-year-long measure of economic sentiment at the country and state levels, that expands existing measures in both the time series (by more than a century) and the cross-section. Our...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014468226
prices, bond yields, and risk premia suggests that systematic US monetary policy reactions to news do not drive the estimated … effects. Instead, the evidence points to a direct effect on investors' risk-taking capacity. Our findings show that a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014247914
Disequilibrating macro shocks affect different firms' prospects differently, increasing idiosyncratic variation in forward-looking stock returns before affecting economic growth. Consistent with most such shocks from 1947 to 2020 enhancing productivity, increased idiosyncratic stock return...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210099
We study the effects of monetary-policy-induced changes in Tobin's q on corporate investment and capital structure. We develop a theory of the mechanism, provide empirical evidence, evaluate the ability of the quantitative theory to match the evidence, and quantify the relevance for monetary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210051
We study the transmission of monetary policy through bank securities portfolios using granular supervisory data on U.S. bank securities, hedging positions, and corporate credit. Banks that experienced larger losses on their securities during the 2022-2023 monetary tightening cycle extended less...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544727
We examine asset prices in environments where the risk-free rate lies considerably below the growth rate. To do so, we … aggregate risk. We show that allowing for the possibility of firms exiting is crucial for matching key macroeconomic moments and …, simultaneously, the risk-free rate, the market price of risk, and price-earnings ratios. In particular, our model allows us to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014436963
Benchmark finance and macroeconomic models appear to deliver conflicting estimates of the natural rate and bond risk …* and π*, and not bond risk premia. Global components of unexpected bond returns are influential, while the local components …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014421212
The amount of information produced about firms' productivities and about the quality of collateral backing their loans varies over time. These information dynamics determine the evolution of credit, output and productivity, which feeds back into incentives to produce information. We characterize...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322900