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Globalization, Structural Change and International Comovement
Bonadio, Barthélémy; Huo, Zhen; Levchenko, Andrei A.; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
industrialized countries over the period 1978-2007. In recent decades, trade integration between advanced economies increased rapidly … share of less correlated sectors in GDP. Globalization - trend reductions in trade costs - exerts two opposing effects on … cross-border GDP comovement. On the one hand, greater trade linkages increase international transmission of shocks and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322746
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Fiscal Procyclicality in Commodity Exporting Countries : How Much Does it Pour and Why?
Arroyo Marioli, Francisco; Végh, Carlos A. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
A large literature has documented that fiscal policy is procyclical in emerging markets and developing economies and acyclical/countercyclical in advanced economies. This paper analyzes fiscal procyclicality in commodity-exporting countries. It first shows that the degree of fiscal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322818
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Uncertainty Shocks, Capital Flows, and International Risk Spillovers
Akinci, Ozge; Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem; Queralto, Albert - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
Foreign investors' changing appetite for risk-taking have been shown to be a key determinant of the global financial cycle. Such fluctuations in risk sentiment also correlate with the dynamics of UIP premia, capital flows, and exchange rates. To understand how these risk sentiment changes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210054
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Multinationals and Structural Transformation
Alviarez, Vanessa I.; Chen, Cheng; Pandalai-Nayar, Nitya; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
stylized model of multinational production and trade, we show that an inward multinational liberalization in the manufacturing … of their affiliates in China to an exogenous change in China's openness to foreign direct investment (FDI). We find that … in industries where inward FDI was encouraged, Japan MNC's affiliates in China experienced increases in their employment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013388850
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Capital Controls on Outflows : New Evidence and a Theoretical Framework
Chang, Roberto; Fernández, Andrés; Martinez, Humberto - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
We study capital controls on outflows (CCOs) in situations of macroeconomic and financial distress. We present novel empirical evidence indicating that CCO implementation is associated with crises and declines in GDP growth. We then develop a theoretical framework that is consistent with such...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015056204
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The Performance of Emerging Markets During The Fed's Easing and Tightening Cycles : A Cross-Country Resilience Analysis
Aizenman, Joshua; Park, Donghyun; Aleem, Irfan; Uddin, … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
We investigate the determinants of emerging markets performance during five U.S. Federal Reserve monetary tightening and easing cycles during 2004-2023. We study how macroeconomic and institutional conditions of an Emerging Market (EM) at the beginning of a cycle explain EM resilience during...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014528343
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Information Frictions and News Media in Global Value Chains
Bui, Ha; Huo, Zhen; Levchenko, Andrei A.; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
coverage; and (iii) sectors more covered in the news exhibit stronger hours growth synchronization, and more so if they trade …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210061
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Nominal Devaluations, Inflation and Inequality
Blanco, Andres; Drenik, Andres; Zaratiegui, Emilio - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
We study the distribution of labor income during large devaluations. Across countries, inequality falls after large devaluations within the context of a surge in inflation and a fall and subsequent recovery of real labor income. To better understand inequality dynamics, we use a novel...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544772
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The Global Dollar Cycle
Obstfeld, Maurice; Zhou, Haonan - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
The U.S. dollar's nominal effective exchange rate closely tracks global financial conditions, which themselves show a cyclical pattern. Over that cycle, world asset prices, leverage, and capital flows move in concert with global growth, especially influencing the fortunes of emerging and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014247924
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Why Global and Local Solutions of Open-Economy Models with Incomplete Markets Differ and Why it Matters
De Groot, Oliver; Durdu, Ceyhun Bora; Mendoza, Enrique G. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
Global and local methods used to study open-economy incomplete-markets models yield different cyclical moments, impulse responses, spectral densities and precautionary savings. Endowment and RBC model solutions obtained with first-order, higher-order, and risky-steady-state local methods are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014337778