Non-parametric gravity as defined in this paper encompasses previous parametric forms. The model generates non-parametric sufficient statistics for arbitrage gains from trade and terms of trade, and a non-parametric elasticity of terms of trade with respect to supply. For world manufacturing...

We propose a simple and flexible reduced-form econometric approach to estimate gravity models in the short and the long run. The theoretical lens for interpreting our methods amends the canonical Lucas-Prescott adjustment formulation to allow for time-interval-varying...

We review theoretical and empirical work on the economic effects of the United States and China trade relations during the last decades. We first discuss the origins of the China shock, its measurement, and present methods used to study its economic effects on different outcomes. We then focus...

Intense US-China commercial rivalry is quantified in this paper with novel non-parametric relative resistance sufficient statistics. The accounting method minimizes the demand specification error variance in revealed resistances. China's manufacturing seller incidence falls (seller price rises)...

The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) and of cross-border restrictions on data flows has created a host of new questions and related policy dilemmas. This paper addresses two questions: How is digital service trade shaped by (1) AI algorithms and (2) by the interplay between AI algorithms and...

We measure the importance of increasing returns to scale and trade in medical services. Using Medicare claims data, we document that "imported" medical care -- services produced by a medical provider in a different region -- constitute about one-fifth of US healthcare consumption. Larger regions...

A prominent explanation for why trade is not free is politicians' desire to protect some of their constituents at the expense of others. In this paper we develop a methodology that can be used to reveal the welfare weights that a nation's import tariffs implicitly place on different groups of...

We study the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on Euro Area inflation and how it compares to the experiences of other countries, such as the United States, over the two-year period 2020-21. Our model-based calibration exercises deliver four key results: 1) Compositional effects - the switch from...

The last two centuries witnessed the rise and fall of empires. We construct a model which rationalises this in terms of the changing trade gains from empires. In the model, empires are arrangements that reduce trade cost between an industrial metropole and the agricultural periphery. During...

Two central topics in recent rounds of international trade negotiations have been environmental concerns, and services trade. While each is undoubtedly important, they are unrelated. In this paper I show that the services-environment link is small, for two reasons. First, services account for...