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We combine a customized survey and randomized controlled trial (RCT) to study the effect of higher-order beliefs on U.S. retail investors' portfolio allocations. We find that investors' higher-order beliefs about stock market returns are correlated with but distinct from their first-order...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014635643
Using transaction data from a large non-fungible token (NFT) trading platform, this paper examines how the behavioral bias of selection-neglect interacts with extrapolative beliefs, accelerating the boom and delaying the crash in the recent NFT bubble. We show that the price-volume relationship...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322885
are usually preceded by credit booms. Second, credit booms often do not result in a crisis. That is, there are "good …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481336
We propose a model of money, credit and bubbles, and use it to study the role of monetary policy in managing asset … bubbles. In this model, bubbles pop up and burst, generating fluctuations in credit, investment and output. Two key insights … away from bubbles - and the credit that they sustain - to money, reducing intermediation, investment and growth. We explore …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456041
others blow over. We demonstrate that what makes some bubbles more dangerous than others is credit. When fueled by credit … slower recoveries. Credit-financed housing price bubbles have emerged as a particularly dangerous phenomenon …What risks do asset price bubbles pose for the economy? This paper studies bubbles in housing and equity markets in 17 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457182
environment is conducive to countries experiencing credit bubbles that have large macroeconomic effects at home and are quickly … and domestic effects of these credit bubbles. This paper extends that framework to two-country setting and studies the … channels through which credit bubbles are transmitted across countries. We find that there are two main channels that work …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457733
beyond other better-known early warning indicators, such as credit booms. This predictive power, however, only holds in … the short-term popularity benefits of weak credit booms rather than implementing politically costly corrective policies …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458321
are too low. In this environment, changes in investor sentiment or market expectations can give rise to credit bubbles … "optimal" bubble by taxing credit when the "equilibrium" bubble is too high, and subsidizing credit when the "equilibrium …We study a dynamic economy where credit is limited by insufficient collateral and, as a result, investment and output …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458704
back into financial conditions, prolonging the credit boom and delaying the response to the bubble when the speculative …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459762
A growing literature uses now widely-available data on beliefs and expectations in the estimation of structural models. In this chapter, we review this literature, with an emphasis on models of individual and household behavior. We first show how expectations data have been used to relax strong...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210122