Showing 1 - 10 of 411
Over the past two decades, respondents to the Shiller Investor Confidence Surveys assess the probability of a catastrophic stock market crash to be much higher that the historical frequency of such events. We decompose these crash probabilities into fundamental and subjective components and use...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014576618
We study the impact of remote work on the commercial office sector. We document large shifts in lease revenues, office occupancy, lease renewal rates, lease durations, and market rents as firms shifted to remote work in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic. We show that the pandemic has had large...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013388882
Neoclassical and psychological models of consumer behavior often make divergent predictions for the welfare effects of paternalistic policies, leaving wide scope for researchers' choice of a model to influence their policy conclusions. We develop a framework to reduce this model uncertainty and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457281
This paper develops the nonparametric identification of models with production complementarities, worker-firm specific disutility of labor and search frictions. Mobility in the model is subject to preference shocks, and we assume that firms can write wage contracts. We develop a constructive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014635650
This paper describes a new, industry-adjusted index of state environmental compliance costs from 1977 to 1994. The … index has two principal advantages: it controls for states' industrial compositions, and it can be calculated for 17 years … and 1994. Third, this cost index is negatively correlated with subjective indices of state environmental efforts compiled …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471487
We construct the World Uncertainty Index (WUI) for an unbalanced panel of 143 individual countries on a quarterly basis …. Globally, the Index spikes around major events like the Gulf War, the Euro debt crisis, the Brexit vote and the COVID pandemic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012938732
In this paper we employ index number theory in addressing the problem of adjusting real national income and real …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477521
Much of the opposition to indexation as a means of adapting to on going inflation arises from the view that indexation is itself inflationary. This paper examines the basis for that view in a simple macroeconomic model in which budget deficits are in part financed through the printing of money....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478451
No cross-sectional consumer price index is currently available by state, and the BLS's cross-sectional "family budget …" index for metropolitan areas is not well-suited for cross-state analyses. In this paper we propose an algorithm for … constructing a state-specific Laspeyres price index using conveniently available information from the Census of Business and the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478829
The composite index of leading indicators is found to be a valuable tool for predicting not only the direction but also … index as a predictor of (1) business cycle turning points as dated by the National Bureau of Economic Research and (2 …) quantitative changes in real GNP and the composite index of coincident indicators. Specific smoothing rules are identified which …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478899