Showing 1 - 10 of 7,406
Using climate change as a prototype motivating example, this paper analyzes the implications of structural uncertainty for the economics of low-probability high-impact catastrophes. The paper shows that having an uncertain multiplicative parameter, which scales or amplifies exogenous shocks and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465156
decision theory to characterize when learning or discriminating among competing probability models is challenging. I also use … choice theory under uncertainty to explore the ramifications of model uncertainty and learning in environments in which … underpinnings of asset pricing models. I illustrate how statistical ambiguity can alter the risk-return tradeoff familiar from asset …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465708
We introduce a new, hybrid measure of stock return tail covariance risk, motivated by the under-diversified portfolio … return as in standard systematic risk measures. We document a positive and significant relation between hybrid tail … covariance risk (H-TCR) and expected stock returns, with an annualized premium of 9%, in contrast to the insignificant or …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459202
distributions of risks give rise to components of equilibrium prices that differ from the risk prices widely used in asset pricing … theory. A quantitative example highlights a representative investor's uncertainties about the size and persistence of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479731
We show that there exists significant heterogeneity across US households in how uncertain they are in their expectations regarding personal and macroeconomic outcomes, and that uncertainty in expectations predicts households' choices. Individuals with lower income or education, more precarious...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480987
between the maximum daily return over the past one month (MAX) and expected stock returns. Average raw and risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463843
This paper presents a model of business cycles driven by shocks to consumer expectations regarding aggregate productivity. Agents are hit by heterogeneous productivity shocks, they observe their own productivity and a noisy public signal regarding aggregate productivity. The shock to this public...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466187
Using a new survey of European households, we study how exogenous variation in the macroeconomic uncertainty perceived by households affects their spending decisions. We use randomized information treatments that provide different types of information about the first and/or second moments of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012496179
We must infer what the future situation would be without our interference, and what changes will be wrought by our actions. Fortunately, or unfortunately, none of these processes is infallible, or indeed ever accurate and complete. Knight (1921)
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458272
This paper provides new evidence in support of the idea that bouts of optimism and pessimism drive much of US business cycles. In particular, we begin by using sign-restriction based identification schemes to isolate innovations in optimism or pessimism and we document the extent to which such...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461007