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The Index of Leading Indicators : "Measurement without Theory," Twenty-Five Years Later
Auerbach, Alan J. - 1981
The index of leading economic indicators first developed by the NBER remains a popular informal forecasting tool in spite of the original criticism that its use represents "measurement without theory. " This paper seeks to evaluate the performance of the index in comparison to alternative time...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478354
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Forecasting with the Index of Leading Indicators
Vaccara, Beatrice N. - 1978
The composite index of leading indicators is found to be a valuable tool for predicting not only the direction but also the size of near- term changes in aggregate economic activity. This conclusion is based on assessments of the leading index as a predictor of (1) business cycle turning points...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478899
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Minding Your Ps and Qs : Going from Micro to Macro in Measuring Prices and Quantities
Ehrlich, Gabriel - 2019
Key macro indicators such as output, productivity, and inflation are based on a complex system across multiple statistical agencies using different samples and different levels of aggregation. The Census Bureau collects nominal sales, the Bureau of Labor Statistics collects prices, and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479421
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Globalization and Global Crises : Rest of the World vs. Israel
Razin, Asaf - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021
. The paper provides an overview of the new globalization trends in the world and in Israel, with emphasis on the role of … side only. On the demand side, the desire to invest has plunged, while people across the rich world are now saving much of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482557
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Global Business Cycles : Convergence or Decoupling?
Kose, M. Ayhan - 2008
This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups -- industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464278
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Heterogeneous Global Booms and Busts
Farboodi, Maryam; Kondor, Péter - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021
We investigate the heterogeneous boom and bust patterns across countries that emerge as a result of global shocks. Our analysis sheds light on the emergence of core and periphery countries, and the joint determination of the depth of recessions and tightness of credit markets across countries....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012533383
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Identifying the Common Component in International Economic Fluctuations
Lumsdaine, Robin L. - 1997
common component, we find evidence for a `world business cycle' as well as evidence for a distinct European common component …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472834
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How Important is the Global Financial Cycle? Evidence from Capital Flows
Cerutti, Eugenio - 2017
This study quantifies the importance of a Global Financial Cycle (GFCy) for capital flows. We use capital flow data dis-aggregated by direction and type between 1990Q1 and 2015Q5 for 85 countries, and conventional techniques, models and metrics. Since the GFCy is an unobservable concept, we use...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012454983
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World Shocks, World Prices, and Business Cycles : An Empirical Investigation
Fernández, Andrés - 2016
intratemporal relative price such as the terms of trade and possibly an intertemporal price such as the world interest rate. This … paper presents an empirical framework in which multiple commodity prices and the world interest rate transmit world … disturbances. Estimates on a panel of 138 countries over the period 1960-2015 indicate that world shocks explain on average 33 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455847
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Global Cycles : Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815-2015
Reinhart, Carmen M. - 2016
Capital flow and commodity cycles have long been connected with economic crises. Sparse historical data, however, has made it difficult to connect their timing. We date turning points in global capital flows and commodity prices across two centuries and provide estimates from alternative data...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456715